Exploring the Unknown - NASA's History Office

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and cost do not become intrinsic deterrents, it is possible at least to conceive of other
developments that might hamper that potential industry. For example, the excitement
might vanish after the first few years. After all, will there be enough important experiences
which an expensive tour can bring that the advanced electronic systems anticipated for
the 21st century could not? Many of the visual experiences in space might be better perceived
through electronics, and probably a lot more comfortably. Still the experience of
weightlessness, or the knowledge of the new realities, such as being suspended in space,
perhaps 25,000 miles above the earth, or a chance to walk on the moon, might prove to
be priceless. Certainly electronics has not been a sufficient substitute to date. These uncertainties
might possibly be resolved fully during this century.
Another consideration might be that of the possible fragility of the upper atmosphere.
If it is found that this protective envelope would be seriously degraded beyond
some calculated number of annual launches, then the future tourist industry could be
greatly hampered since it would probably have a relatively low priority. This might not rule
tourism out but could limit it severely or restrict it to only a very few high priority needs.
On the other hand, the upper atmosphere might not prove to be fragile at all for properly
designed propulsive systems.
[264] These potential issues are raised for balance in this discussion. Space tourism has
an exciting long-term potential but it first needs to be developed and shown to yield sufficient
benefits. During the next few decades unforeseen problems will undoubtedly arise
and will need to be solved satisfactorily. Until that time space tours are likely to remain in
the limbo of hopes or dreams.
If the health problems associated with protracted journeys into space should become
relatively severe, various solutions may emerge over time that will permit space development
to continue. Indeed, the major competitors to the human presence in space have
been and undoubtedly will be the various automated devices—robots, in one form or
another. Currently, according to Carl Sagan, “As a rule of thumb, a manned mission costs
50 to 100 times more than a comparable unmanned mission.” 1 Over time, automation has
become increasingly compact and effective. That is, the robots tend to shrink in size and
increase the range of their activities. Humans can learn to do the latter, but they will have
difficulty in shrinking.
Nevertheless, a human presence in space will be needed and is likely to grow. The economics
of the competition with the robots generally will determine the relative balance
only when the same tasks can be done by both. As space development proceeds, the balance
may shift either way. However, as space industrialization grows in complexity the
need for human specialists may grow in proportion. The first Space Shuttle decade, the
‘80s, should give us some early clues about the outcome of this long-term competition.
[265] D. The Scenarios
SPACE AS AN INVESTMENT IN ECONOMIC GROWTH
Optimistic Scenario: Some of the potential technology discussed in Chapter III is used
in the Optimistic Scenario of Chapter IV. This scenario simply exercises the possible technological
and economic muscles to show what could reasonably occur in an environment
of sustained funding, high morale, dedication, cooperation, good management, and reasonable
luck. It is intended to open up some vistas, to make it clear that extraordinary possibilities
exist that are not necessarily Utopian. Although the events portrayed are
generally not expected to happen as soon as indicated, we believe that the sequence is not
intrinsically forbidden. It may only require a change in public attitudes, which is certain-
1. The New York Times Magazine, July 10, 1977.