Exploring the Unknown - NASA's History Office

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SPACE AS AN INVESTMENT IN ECONOMIC GROWTH
b. Applications Projects
1 2 3 4
Realization TUO Benefits TUO Benefits TUO Benefit-
Probability Plus Other TUO Cost Ratio
Biomedical:
Cataract Tool 0.5 31.0 6.4 41.0
Burns Diagnosis 0.5 2.7 1.8 8.2
Meal Systems 0.10 10.5 .8 5.8
Pacemaker
Human Tissue
1.00 72.0 .7 4.1
Stimulator
Engineering:
0.30 516.0 2.6 9.6
Nickel-Zinc Battery 0.50 328.0 15.0 68.0
Zinc-Rich Coatings 0.80 68.0 14.6 340.0
Track-Train Dynamics2
Firefighter’s Breathing
0.20 98.0 .02 2.6
System2 1.00 6.1 3.8 3.6
The total TUO benefits from the applications projects analyzed are estimated to be
$44.9 million with a benefit-cost ratio of 22. However, because the applications projects
evaluated do not constitute a random sample, the results reported in Table 1 cannot be
used to impute benefits to the overall applications program. The corresponding total and
ratio for the information activities we examined are respectively $8.1 million and 2.5.
Remembering that the information activity estimates are based upon data on transactions
that actually took place during the period 1970–1976, while the applications project estimates
are generally for projects that will be completed after 1976, an approximate overall
estimate of the TUO benefits of the activities analyzed can be derived from the sum of the
benefits shown in the table. When this is done, we obtain estimated TUO benefits for these
[6] selected activities of $53 million and a benefit-cost ratio of 10 for TUO’s activity.
It is important to understand that our estimates of benefits and benefit-cost ratios
should be taken as averages about which some uncertainties exist. There are three main
sources of this uncertainty: possible measurement error in the data; possible errors in our
modeling of relationships using the data; and errors in forecasting the future. Because the
last of these types of uncertainty does not pose a problem for our estimates of the benefits
associated with the information activities, those benefits probably have less uncertainty associated
with them. However, the nature of the data sources and the compounding of many
random events prevents any quantitative estimates of these error bounds from being made.
Based on the information in Table 1, it can be concluded that for those programs and
projects that we have analyzed, the contribution of TUO in the form of benefits gained
through its technology transfer programs is greater than the costs it incurred in the
process. . . .
2. Estimated parametrically. . . .