Exploring the Unknown - NASA's History Office

EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 485
ly possible. The scenario not only is intended to give a sense of some ultimate possibilities
but also of an eventual outcome. Almost all of the technological developments that “happen”
in the first 100 years are likely to occur sooner or later—even in a pessimistic scenario,
although probably much later and on a reduced scale. As is discussed below, the
economic and technological progress associated with the Optimistic Scenario is amazing
in its long-term outcome, but is relatively modest in any particular year or decade.
Pessimistic Scenario: Chapter V portrays the two New International Order Scenarios.
Part I carries out a theme which today is widely accepted in the world, although not by the
authors. This is a perspective which suggests that the developed nations generally are relatively
“decadent” and that the developing nations have the energy and dynamism to push
them aside and become the focus of the future. The second (Part II) version of [266] the
scenario assumes that richer countries will, in part through the transfer of resources,
greatly accelerate the development of the poorer countries and that these, as they attain
comparable wealth and technological advancement, will adopt the social attitudes and
ideology of their former benefactors. Both of these scenarios strike us as being relatively
improbable—but they do raise important issues.
On the other hand, we do find that many formerly poor nations are now middleincome
ones and progressing very rapidly. Scenario I gives special roles to China and
Brazil in determining the world’s future, each for different reasons. Scenario II gives a
much weakened and modified form of this New International Order in which both the
middle-income nations and the poor nations eventually become post-industrial, after
which further economic progress is very slow.
In both scenarios, it is the middle-income nations that appear likely to “challenge” the
lead of the U.S. and the Soviet Union in space activities by the end of the century or soon
afterwards. In fact, in these scenarios the U.S. lead—as measured by budgets—is lost to
both the Russians and the Chinese before the year 2000, and to the Brazilians soon afterwards.
We believe that in this respect the two scenarios depicted are not implausible; it
may well turn out that these newcomers in advanced technology and growing affluence
will become technologically dominant, including space development. Perhaps nothing
succeeds like success in a space “race.” Moreover, the successes of the former middleincome
countries in space could greatly increase their ability to become wealthier than
the present developed nations. In these scenarios it occurs, not only because of
[267] direct economic and technological achievements, but because their success creates
a high morale and a sense of competence from the attainment of communal goals—attitudes
that growing space activities might also engender in the [Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development] nations under appropriate circumstances.
Because visible signs of success are so important, many of the Third World countries
often attempt to “fake” them. That is, they are attracted to four-lane highways and jet airliners
in order to achieve the appearance of success before they have properly attended
to their problems in rural roads, agriculture, employment, and education. The diversion
of resources to showy projects can be tragic even if the showy projects are successful; usually
they are not. Thus it may be undesirable for a Third World country to jump into space
development rapidly. Unless both their economies and technological resources are substantial
it can represent a serious and impractical diversion of scarce resources. However,
the appropriate economic conditions and technological development can appear with
astonishing rapidity. In fact, even S. Korea and Taiwan may be ready for certain specialized
space ventures in the foreseeable future because of the rapidity with which they have
been progressing. Potential economic and technological giants such as China and Brazil
may also develop a space capability much more quickly than generally expected, if their
recent progress continues.
In our most Pessimistic Scenario progress in economics and technology becomes very
low after a country becomes post-industrial. Still, a surprising outcome (one which struck