Exploring the Unknown - NASA's History Office

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Commercial Space Industry in the Year 2000
A Market Forecast
[1] I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A. INTRODUCTION
SPACE AS AN INVESTMENT IN ECONOMIC GROWTH
One of the most remarkable facts of our industrial society is the accelerating rate of
progress. Our scientific knowledge and understanding of the universe doubles now in less
than a generation, and we have had more progress in the past fifty years than in the preceding
millennium in terms of practical impact. It is interesting to note that economists
predict that a substantial percentage of the jobs that will exist in the year 2010 (i.e.
25 years from now) do not exist now; rather, they will be created by the dynamism of new
industries made possible by technologies which are only beginning to emerge from laboratories
today.
Our nation’s brief history in space is an unparalleled example of this trend. While the
United States had been investigating space and began to develop rudimentary space technologies
after the close of World War II, our civilian space programs did not begin in
earnest until the creation of NASA in 1958. In a little more than a quarter of a century, we
have come to understand the requirements of living and working in space.
Importantly, the way we look at the heavens is changing. For the first two decades,
NASA’s space programs had three primary objectives: the advancement of scientific
knowledge about our universe; the development of an engineering capability which
enabled us to conduct manned and unmanned operations in space; and the pursuit of
heroic feats of exploration reminiscent of those of the maritime explorers of centuries
ago. Now, we are beginning to look at space as a place of enterprise. The Administration
and NASA have both come out strongly in support of commercial investment in space,
and have expended considerable amounts of talent in order to understand what the
Government can do to encourage the private sector to invest in a new industrial frontier.
This report focuses on the year 2000, and projects the commercial revenues for six
space industries: satellite communications, materials processing in space (MPS), remote
sensing, on-orbit services, space transportation, and ground--based support. Revenues are
for U.S. industry only, and are stated in 1985 dollars. The projections do not take into
account revenues accruing to the private sector through the R&D expenditures of the government
(e.g. the NASA space station program is not included). However, government
purchases of commercially developed space hardware and products are included (for
example, government purchases of commercial upper stages). High and low scenarios
have been generated for each industry. Under the low scenario, extremely conservative
assumptions have been used in defining [2] the product or service and its market. Under
the high scenarios, more optimistic assumptions have been used.
The satellite communications, MPS and remote sensing markets can be considered
“Applications Markets” in that some aspect of space is critical to the provision of service.
Satellite communications and remote sensing profit from the vantage point afforded by
space; MPS utilizes other physical attributes of space (most notably microgravity) to produce
materials which cannot be made on Earth. Space transportation, on-orbit services,
and ground support, on the other hand, can be considered “Infrastructure Markets.” They
are not end products in themselves, but are necessary for the provision of other products.