Exploring the Unknown - NASA's History Office

476
crystal production ($500 million to $1 billion). These crystals will be employed primarily
in defense applications. The balance of MPS products will come from other semiconductors
($1 billion in the high scenario) and halide optical fiber ($100 million to $1 billion).
[4] D. REMOTE SENSING
Remote sensing satellites provide data from space concerning the earth’s surface and
atmosphere. To date, satellites have been operated by the government as public goods.
The government is still the largest user and supplier of Landsat data and services. The
imminent launch of the first SPOT satellite, a foreign private system, and the current
attempt to shift the American Landsat to the private sector will alter this situation dramatically.
The success or failure of the Landsat transfer will be the greatest single factor in the
development of the American remote-sensing industry for the rest of this century. Delays
in the process have already ensured that an interruption in service lasting at least two years
will follow the expected 1987 failure of the current operating satellite, Landsat 5. This
data gap could allow the SPOT system to preempt opportunities for a future American system.
The development of a “value-added” industry to process satellite data depends heavily
on the existence of an American system on orbit. Without access to affordable data during
these formative years, the value-added industry cannot get on its feet. The
opportunities for private satellite raw data companies would then be limited severely: the
demand for raw data will not support a private remote sensing satellite venture.
Total revenues for satellite remote sensing in the United States are expected to be
between $500 million and $2.5 billion in the year 2000. In our low scenario, the only applications
likely to be continued are those which require global coverage (such as the global
crop assessment service). All U.S. revenues would be obtained from value-added
services: $380 million is forecast for expenditures by the petroleum industry, while the
remainder will derive from a number of smaller users, including paper and lumber companies,
grain traders, commodity brokers, and some very large agricultural associations.
Federal, state and local governments will continue to use Landsat data, processed by private
contractors, for those surveying purposes where cost-effective alternatives are not
available.
In our high scenario, a private remote sensing satellite is in operation, as well as private
sensors on the space station’s polar platform. The American value-added market also
finds sufficient support for continued development. Computer and information technology
improvements, increasing prices for non-renewable resources, and increasing competition
in agricultural and forest-related industries support this development. Of the $2.5
billion generated in this scenario, $500 million accrues from raw data sales, while the
remaining $2.0 billion are derived from value-added [5] services. Of the total revenues,
$1 billion derives from non-renewable resource industries, $1.35 billion from renewable
resource industries, and $150 million from other sources.
E. ON-ORBIT SERVICES
SPACE AS AN INVESTMENT IN ECONOMIC GROWTH
A large market opportunity will materialize in the coming years for companies providing
on-orbit workspace and servicing. Several companies currently offer forerunners of
the on-orbit hardware that can be expected to serve the MPS industry at the turn of the
century, and NASA is developing servicing concepts and hardware that should be applicable
to commercial use. Total yearly industry revenues are projected at $.6–2.8 billion.
Commercial workspace will be the location for all commercial production activities
(R&D is assumed to take place aboard the NASA space station). Free flyers and Man-