Exploring the Unknown - NASA's History Office

486
SPACE AS AN INVESTMENT IN ECONOMIC GROWTH
both authors forcibly) was that eventually, despite a general pessimism about space projects
and other technological developments, space activities still become surprisingly
extensive. [268] (Consider, as an analogy, that even if Queen Isabella had not financed
Columbus, or if he had failed on his voyage, the Western Hemisphere would still be there,
waiting to be found; since the time was ripe for worldwide exploration and exploitation
other Europeans would have reached it before many more years had passed.)
The pressures for exploring and exploiting outer space basically derive from increasing
wealth and advancing technologies. Over time the projects become easier to fund and,
with advances in technology, less difficult to do. At some appropriate time, barring an
almost religious aversion to new technology, a sufficient desire for space development will
arise—even if long intervals occur when support is hard to find.
Another analogy might be made with the development of the U.S. railroads and the
West. The railroads were stimulated by gifts of free land by the government and the belief
that, as the railroads were built, the traffic would follow—that a great deal of industrial
mining and agricultural development, including forestry, would occur quite rapidly and
justify their investment. The time was ripe and it did.
A similar experience could occur with the Space Shuttle system. In space there may be
no equivalent to the free 160-acre homesteads which were once available to the average
American, but great opportunities are likely to exist for various “railroad” companies who
“stake out claims” in outer space. At the moment the space frontier and its available
resources seem relatively unlimited. Relatively few critical regions appear to exist that might
eventually become the cause of major conflicts and hinder commercial development.
[269] Moderate Scenario: Chapter VI develops our Moderate Scenario which is intended
to be more plausible than the others. It has an implied conviction that the progress represented
is worth striving for—and can be achieved without undue reaching. It represents
our “median” image of future developments in space. It contains some fictional elements
which are intended to be prototypes of actual historical events, including individuals who
are “movers” and “shakers” and who play central roles in forcing a more rapid space development.
The Moderate Scenario emphasizes two new commercial opportunities: space industrialization
and tourism, both of which appear to have extremely large potential in all the scenarios.
The term, “space tourism,” alone may not convey the intended meaning. If we
assume that space travel is the moving experience that it has been to many astronauts, at
some future time various organizations or societies may wish to provide this experience to
selected people. It may be a reward for dedicated service or special contributions, or a ritual
associated with special religious groups. Or it could be arranged through an open or
limited access lottery.
Shortly after the beginning of space tourism, assuming it is successful, we find the possibility
of great interest in establishing permanent orbiting colonies—possibly with many
of the same motivations. We have not dwelt upon the desire for utopias or choices for
one’s preferred life style. However, it may well turn out that one of the major motivations
for colonies in space is similar to that which drove the Pilgrims to New England: the desire
to choose their way of life with minimal interference from the home country. This outcome,
of course, would depend very much on [270] the cost and viability of such colonies.
But even relatively small sects, given a growing future affluence, could eventually finance
a colony if they were sufficiently motivated—particularly if they had ability to tithe, like
the Mormons or Black Muslims. 2
2. For example, if 1,000,000 families each contributed $2,500 a year for 40 years, without interest this
[would] become $100 billion, enough to establish a substantial colony in the early to mid-21st century, according
to our projections. The contribution could appear to a believer as a tax-exempt investment in the future rather
than as a gift.