Exploring the Unknown - NASA's History Office

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510 Return on Investment*—% 50 40 30 20 10 Figure 16. IC processing yield sensitivity Return on Investment*—% 0 50 40 30 20 10 Figure 17. Shuttle user cost sensitivity SPACE AS AN INVESTMENT IN ECONOMIC GROWTH Earth Material Yield *After Taxes Space Material Yield 29.5% Current Industry ROI 0 10 20 30 40 Integrated Circuit Processing Yield—% 29.5% *After Taxes Estimated User Charge $21M 0 0 5 10 15 20 Shuttle User Charge/Launch—$M 25
the desired average expected return on investment was 20.8%, or a risk premium of about 11% over current operations. The 29.5% projected return on investment for silicon ribbon manufacturing exceeds this criterion by a substantial margin. Another more comprehensive method of risk analysis is to evaluate risk as a function of time and then risk-adjust the cash flows for use in calculating a risk adjusted rate of return. To do this, first the technical, legal, and market risks associated with the commercial space manufacturing of silicon ribbon are evaluated. Evaluation of technical risk required definition of the research and development activities for the silicon ribbon process and process apparatus. The research and development required was divided into three phases, ground and sounding rocket research and development, Shuttle sortie development, and pilot plant demonstration. A proposed timetable for these activities is shown in Figure 18. The approximate cost of these activities is $36M, not including launch costs. For the purpose of risk analysis, three objectives were identified as being necessary to the technical implementation of space manufacturing; basic process development, manufacturing plant development, and mission operations. These objectives were divided into thirty-six technical risk elements in three levels of detail similar to a work breakdown structure. These elements were then classified as (1) proven space technology, (2) existing knowledge requiring development for space application, and (3) new technology requiring research. The applicable range of probability of success for these categories is: (1) greater than 0.99, (2) more than 0.95 but less than 0.99, and (3) less than 0.95, respectively. A subjective evaluation was made of where the risk for each element fell within the applicable range. The results of this analysis are shown in Figure 19. The probability of technical success increases with time from 0.22 today, to 0.48 at the completion of ground and sounding rocket research and development in 1981, to 0.69 at the completion of Shuttle sortie process demonstration, and finally to 0.95 at the completion of a pilot plant demonstration in 1985. Figure 18. Research and development schedule EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 511 Microgravity Flights Ground Experiments Physical Properties Meniscus Shaping Process Apparatus Development Sounding Rocket Physical Properties Melt Stability and Liquid/Solid Interface Melt-Seed Interaction Crystal Growth in Microgravity Crystal Morphology Meniscus Shaping in Microgravity Shuttle Sorties Meniscus Shaping Melt/Feed Rod Interaction Continuous Crystal Growth Reseed Effects Thermal and Mechanical Control Solar Furnace Prototype Process Operation 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83
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Exploring Unknown the Selected Docu
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I-11 President John F. Kennedy to H
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II-2 S.M. Greenfield and W.W. Kello
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II-23 Arnold W. Frutkin, Memorandum
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II-46-II-48 Gregory W. Withee, Acti
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III-18 “Space Commercialization M
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Acknowledgments This volume is the
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Introduction One of the most import
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The editorial method we adopted for
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Joseph N. Pelton is a professor of
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GAO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Chapter One The History of Satellit
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 3 satellite f
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 5 different v
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 7 satellite s
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 9 This unique
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 11 technology
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 13 7. In the
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 15 16. The re
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applies only to the closest possibl
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 19 arrangemen
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 21 Conclusion
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entific and engineering work and to
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observations indicated strong refle
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 27 Oval-shape
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Number of Randomly Spaced Satellite
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Document I-4 Document Title: Memora
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 33 6. How can
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 35 RECOMMENDA
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[3] 2. SUMMARY OF TECHNICAL FEATURE
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[28] 7. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDAT
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 41 d. NASA’
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 43 [1] PUBLIC
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EXPERIMENTATION The Commission is e
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 47 During dis
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facilities in intercontinental comm
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Ground Transmitting Station at Holm
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 53 diodes, so
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 55 Bell Telep
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 57 Our estima
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 59 implicatio
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 61 as quickly
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 63 Commission
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 65 Document t
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 67 licenses,
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 69 opment of
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 71 any system
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In the end, the administration bill
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 75 program in
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your bill and some of the major asp
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 79 1934, as a
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 81 or appropr
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U.S.C. 310) [citation in margin:
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interest; and (iii) an evaluation o
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 87 ment on Ap
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 89 aspects of
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Document title: Memorandum from J.
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 93 tiated by
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cations satellite system rather tha
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___________________________________
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telegram are as follows: (A) Policy
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tems. Diversion of Government traff
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quality of services and charges for
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 105 tions is
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 107 A. Techno
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Report of the United States Delegat
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States, Vatican City State, Venezue
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 113 structure
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 115 U.S. posi
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 117 agreed th
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 119 VII. Futu
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 121 to explor
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 123 (b) to af
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 125 the natio
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 127 and Order
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 129 own stron
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 131 We are en
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 133 and meeti
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 135 Plumbrook
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cant background information and wor
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 139 Applicati
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earth terminals, high-gain satellit
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20 watts of power per kilogram. New
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 145 the devel
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No additional items were reviewed.
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Specifically, this report concludes
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[55] THE SECRETARY OF COMMERCE Wash
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A memorandum of law concerning Arti
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156 OBSERVING THE EARTH FROM SPACE
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196 scanned from extreme altitudes
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198 winds, cumulus clouds that have
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200 bends back on itself with incre
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204 required for Project TIROS in e
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212 [1] [rubber stamped: “AUG 15
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214 These two letters, one from Con
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220 Budget Authority (BA) and Outla
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224 Document II-11 Document title:
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232 International Applications Area
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236 Agricultural Geographic Geologi
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240 that a number of important user
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242 [1] For the Record SAR/Robert G
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244 make every effort to ensure tha
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246 monitor the earth’s volcanoes
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250 with us in this area). Encourag
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254 the memorandum be explicitly br
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256 should officially participate i
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258 [1] APR 14, 1970 Honorable Walt
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260 One persuasive argument for cre
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262 General Assembly’s First Comm
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264 [1] July 24, 1974 Summary OBSER
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270 in the months following the lau
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274 their goals by making improved
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278 recommended that continuity of
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280 gap in data availability would
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282 ment—considering the budgetar
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284 vices required for a multipurpo
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286 and for maintaining archives of
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292 D. Conclusions and Consequences
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298 Assumptions This document was d
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304 training and technology transfe
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306 the payment of appropriate fees
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308 • The sub-issues that will ne
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314 development, either alone or in
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316 rity and foreign policy implica
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320 report or explicitly address th
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330 [no pagination] PUBLIC LAW 98-3
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344 AUTHORIZATION OF APPROPRIATIONS
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346 [no pagination] For Immediate R
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348 This management plan spells out
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350 funding adjustments as agreed t
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352 Includes: • Ground System Dev
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368 TITLE VI—PROHIBITION OF COMME
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370 Document II-42 Honorable George
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372 The Honorable John H. Gibbons A
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374 (b) Make government-owned Lands
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376 The letter from NOAA’s Gregor
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378 There is currently considerable
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380 7. During periods when national
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Chapter Three Space as an Investmen
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 387 However,
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 389 sectors o
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 391 the devel
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 393 during th
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 395 Internati
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 397 Committee
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 399 are not s
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still many hurdles for the space in
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[1] SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS EXPLORI
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 405 developme
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important role in raising funds for
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nomic growth. The focus was on aggr
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the quality of goods and services d
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findings indicated that most of the
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This study showed an overall seven-
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sible to forecast the impacts on ma
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Our formulation of γ is as follows
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 421 Table 4 I
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already shown above (Table 5) the m
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Significance of Findings Significan
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David Cross and I will be glad to d
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 429 • The d
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 431 [i] NASA
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 433 The major
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their momentous insight when they d
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The direct social impact of NASA co
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[32] Microwave Systems Internal Gas
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[34] Internal Gas Dynamics Telemetr
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Impact of NASA Combinations High Mo
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Percentage of Economic Impact Alrea
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“less” to a “more” preferre
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[8] 4. NASTRAN NASTRAN (NASA Struct
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The following sections will discuss
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Diff. From Baseline, Thousands Figu
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 455 expenditu
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[2] II. CREATING OPPORTUNITIES FOR
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 561 earlier b
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Finally, the medical end use catego
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 565 (3) provi
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 567 Effective
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 569 [10] A br
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 571 [14] POLI
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 573 activitie
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NASA’s technology transfer progra
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EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 577 Tech Brie
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Ralph Braibanti joined the Departme
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F Philip J. Farley (1916- ) earned
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Lyndon B. Johnson (1908-1973) (D-TX
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M Leonard H. Marks was one of the o
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Robert C. Seamans, Jr. (1918- ), ha
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Robert M. White (1923- ) served as
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Bullington, Kenneth, 25 Bush, Georg
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Defense Satellite Communications Sy
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I Indiana University, 388 Initial D
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METOP satellite series, 166 Midwest
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O O’Connell, James D., 91-95, 99-
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and “Long-Term Prospects for Deve
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Reference Works, NASA SP-4000 The N
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SP-4207 not published. Compton, W.
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