Exploring the Unknown - NASA's History Office

Long-Term Prospects for Developments in Space
(A Scenario Approach)
By
William M. Brown and Herman Kahn . . .
[257] Chapter VII
REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT
A. Images of the Future
EXPLORING THE UNKNOWN 481
Let us first review briefly what has been attempted in the first six chapters. The first
chapter offers a typology of various space scenarios and of various themes for constructing
scenarios. The point is made that such scenarios have many uses, and that from
NASA’s viewpoint an important, if somewhat neglected, one is the systematic formulation
and dissemination of appropriate images of the future. Hopefully these images would be
realistically developed and become valuable to policymakers.
We believe that NASA should try, in a low-keyed manner, to formulate and promulgate
a concept of future space development as part of the manifest destiny of humanity,
and as an obvious next phase in an historical process which started in the 15th century
with the age of exploration and which has led to today’s modern world.
In the 19th century many Americans overtly believed in manifest destiny, a concept
which encouraged the opening up of the West and extended this country to the Pacific.
Through our scenarios we did find that space, to a rather remarkable degree, was likely to
play roles similar to those which the frontier played in America’s past. According to some
historians, such as Frederick J. Turner, much of the character of American life—the egalitarianism,
the feelings of independence and competence, the sense of openness and
unlimited vistas, the upward mobility, and a deep belief in democracy[—]seem to have
been dependent on, or strongly influenced by, the existence of a frontier. We believe that
this characteristic of our past [258] may well be continued—possibly in a modified or
weaker form—through the exploration, development and exploitation of space.
Whether the analogy is valid or not, an accepted image of the future can give rise to
expectations that could materialize into real space projects. We also argued that for such
images to have the greatest near-term impact in the U.S. they should emphasize the practical
uses of space—i.e., its scientific and economic values—and should treat its important
psychological, political, social, and cultural consequences as by-products.
We believe that basic images of the future such as we have presented in this report are
generally unavailable in America, or elsewhere. It is clear there is a large and active group
of science fiction fans and it is clear that publicists have been very instrumental in spreading
particular concepts (such as Professor O’Neill, for space colonies). But much more
can be done. Many potential space activities, even if they are unduly optimistic or exaggerated
(for example, as some critics believe Professor O’Neill’s estimates to be), are still
useful as part of a social process. If supported by NASA they should be properly formulated
and labeled. NASA should also furnish long-range estimates and images of the
future which are more or less consonant with its official positions; these can be quite exciting
and still be plausible, or even conservative, within NASA.
The authors believe that a basis exists for a popular but serious book that will reflect
much of the material in this report. We believe our activity has been a very useful one, even
though that is clearly a self-serving remark. However, we would not have entered this project
unless we felt that it was useful from a broad national perspective. Enough is now happen-