Exploring the Unknown - NASA's History Office

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Three areas of concern were addressed in evaluating legal risk: patents, trade secrets
and liabilities. These concerns were evaluated with respect to U.S. and international law
as illustrated by Figure 20. The recommendations indicate [13] [original placement of
Figure 19] [original placement of Figure 20] [14] that there are no insurmountable legal
problems. Based on this evaluation, a subjective estimate was made of the probability of
completion of the manufacturing program through 1990 without losses caused by legal
problems (today). This probability of success was estimated as three chances in four. The
amount of risk is a function of time[;] thus it decreases to zero as the 1990 completion
date is approached. Early concentration on problem areas is expected to substantially
reduce the risk to about 10% by the start of sortie missions.
Probability of Success
Commercial Space Manufacturing
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Ps = 0.22
Figure 19. Technical risk assessment
SPACE AS AN INVESTMENT IN ECONOMIC GROWTH
Basic Process
Development
Mfg. Plant
Development
Ps = 0.48
Space Manufacturing Program
Mission
Operations
Demonstration
Ps = 0.69
Ps = 0.95
1976 1977 1978 1978 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
1
Today
2
Ground and
Sounding Rocket
R&D Complete
Program Milestone
3
Process Apparatus
Demonstration in
Shuttle Complete
4
Pilot Plant
Demonstration
Complete
Three areas of concern were evaluated to determine market risk. The first was that silicon
might be replaced by another material, the second was that even if the projected market
for high quality silicon existed, a competitive ground based process might be
developed, and the third was that the space material might not command a premium
price and thus not be price competitive.
Analysis of competitive materials failed to identify a material which would supplant silicon
as the base substrate material for all LSI technologies. However, the risk was adjusted
to account for potential competitive impact of silicon-on-sapphire (SOS) on the
metal-oxide-semiconductor (MOS) LSI market segment. In terms of competitive processes,
some ribbon processes are being developed as part of the government sponsored solar
cell research program. These processes are directed towards the development of low-cost