Commission on the Reform of Ontario's Public Services

6
TABLE 1. Three Views of the Outlook for 2017–18
Budget Scenario*
2010–11 2017–18 2010–11 to 2017–18 2010–11 2017–18 2010–11 to 2017–18 2010–11 2017–18 2010–11 to 2017–18
Billions
($)
Billions
($)
Per Cent
Change
CAGR*
(Per
Cent)
Per
Capita in
current
dollars
Per
Capita in
current
dollars
Per Cent
Change
CAGR*
(Per
Cent)
Per
Capita in
2010
dollars
***
Per
Capita in
2010
dollars
***
Per Cent
Change
CAGR**
(Per
Cent)
Revenue
Expense
106.2 142.2 33.9 4.3 8,027 9,898 23.3 3.0 8,027 8,527 6.2 0.9
Program
Spending
113.3 124.9 10.2 1.4 8,569 8,697 1.5 0.2 8,569 7,492 (12.6) (1.9)
Interest on
Debt
9.5 16.3 70.7 7.9 720 1,132 57.2 6.7 720 975 35.4 4.4
Total
Expense
122.9 141.2 14.9 2.0 9,289 9,829 5.8 0.8 9,289 8,467 (8.8) (1.3)
Contingency
Reserve
– 1.0 – – – 70 – – – 60 – –
Surplus/
(Deficit)
(16.7) – – – (1,261) – – – (1,261) – – –
Net Debt 217.3 322.5 48.4 5.8 16,431 22,450 36.6 4.6 16,431 19,340 17.7 2.4
Net Debt/
GDP
35.5% 39.7% – – – – – – – – – –
Status Quo*
Revenue
Expense
106.7 132.7 24.5 3.2 8,063 9,241 14.6 2.0 8,063 7,960 (1.3) (0.2)
Program
Spending
111.2 141.4 27.2 3.5 8,406 9,842 17.1 2.3 8,406 8,479 0.9 0.1
Interest on
Debt
9.5 19.7 107.5 11.0 717 1,369 91.1 9.7 717 1,180 64.6 7.4
Total
Expense
120.7 161.1 33.5 4.2 9,122 11,212 22.9% 3.0% 9,122 9,658 5.9 0.8
Contingency
Reserve
– 1.9 – – – 132 – – – 114 – –
Surplus/
(Deficit)
(14.0) (30.2) – – (1,059) (2,103) – – (1,059) (1,812) – –
Net Debt
Net Debt/
GDP
214.5
35.0%
411.4
50.7%
91.8
–
9.8
–
16,216
–
28,641
–
76.6
–
8.5
–
16,216
–
24,672
–
52.1
–
6.2
–
Preferred Scenario*
Revenue
Expense
106.7 134.7 26.3 3.4 8,063 9,377 16.3 2.2 8,063 8,077 0.2 0.0
Program
Spending
111.2 117.5 5.6 0.8 8,406 8,176 (2.7) (0.4) 8,406 7,043 (16.2) (2.5)
Interest on
Debt
9.5 15.3 61.8 7.1 717 1,068 49.0 5.9 717 920 28.4 3.6
Total
Expense
120.7 132.8 10.0 1.4 9,122 9,244 1.3 0.2 9,122 7,963 (12.7) (1.9)
Contingency
Reserve
– 1.9 – – – 132 – – – 114 – –
Surplus/
(Deficit)
(14.0) 0.0 – – (1,059) 0.0 – – (1,059) 0.0 – –
Net Debt
Net Debt/
GDP
214.5
35.0%
300.1
37.0%
39.9
–
4.9
–
16,216
–
20,888
–
28.8
–
3.7
–
16,216
–
17,994
–
11.0
–
1.5
–
* Certain figures may not add due to rounding.
** CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate.
*** Deflated by the CPI.