Commission on the Reform of Ontario's Public Services

TABLE 19.2 Historical and Projected Pension Expense by Plan
($ Millions)
Chapter 19: Liability Management
PSPP and
OPSEUPP
TPP HOOPP CAAT TOTAL
2005–06 227 295 663 70 1,255
2006–07 172 345 719 82 1,318
2007–08 131 342 750 93 1,316
2008–09 321 50 853 94 1,318
2009–10 536 255 956 153 1,900
2010–11 726 522 938 184 2,370
2011–12 759 526 1,023 177 2,485
2012–13 862 908 1,123 206 3,099
2013–14 858 1,385 1,227 230 3,700
2014–15 784 1,354 1,231 232 3,601
2015–16 831 1,372 1,301 237 3,741
2016–17 938 1,409 1,370 233 3,950
2017–18 1,051 1,472 1,456 232 4,211
As noted elsewhere in this report, growth in total program expense must be held to
0.8 per cent if the province wishes to balance its budget by 2017–18. Total pension expense,
including HOOPP and CAAT, 2 grew at an average rate of more than 13 per cent from
2005–06 to 2010–11. As demonstrated above, pension expense is expected to continue to
grow at a rate well in excess of 0.8 per cent through 2017–18. Should these high rates of
growth persist, total 2005–06 pension expense will have more than tripled by 2017–18.
Currently, pension expense is about two per cent of total program spending growth and
is responsible for much of the total increase in program spending under the 0.8 per cent
growth cap. Total program spending can rise $6.3 billion from 2010–11 to 2017–18. This
program pension expense will, under the Preferred Scenario, take up $1.8 billion or almost
30 per cent of the total increase. It will go from 2.1 per cent of total program spending in
2010–11 to 3.6 per cent in 2017–18 in our Preferred Scenario.
2 While included in Table 19.2 for the sake of completeness, pension expenses related to HOOPP and CAAT are contained in the health
and post-secondary sector expenses, respectively. As such, they do not constitute part of the residual expenditure.
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