Milk-and-Dairy-Products-in-Human-Nutrition-FAO

11
Chapter 2
Milk availability:
Current production and demand
and medium-term outlook
Stefano Gerosa 1 and Jakob Skoet 2
1 Consultant, Agricultural Development Economics Division, Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy; 2 Economist, Agricultural
Development Economics Division, FAO, Rome, Italy
Abstract
This chapter reviews trends in global production and consumption of dairy
products and the drivers behind these trends. Consumption of dairy products
has increased rapidly in recent decades in several parts of the developing world,
driven by economic growth and rising income levels. This has been accompanied
by major increases in production in several developing countries, with growth rates
significantly outpacing those in developed countries. Technological change in the
sector has resulted in major increases in productivity and the emergence of largescale
commercial dairy farms. However, small-scale dairy producers have remained
largely at the margin of these developments. Trade in dairy products has expanded
as a result of improved processing and shipping technologies. However, the bulk
of dairy production is consumed domestically and does not enter international
trade. The potential for further increases in dairy consumption remains significant,
especially in countries where per capita consumption is still relatively low, but the
rate of growth is expected to be slower than in recent decades. The rapid expansion
and transformation of the global dairy sector contributes to growing threats to the
environment and to human and animal health and increases pressures on the livelihoods
of small-scale dairy producers. These issues require attention if the continued
development of the sector is to be sustainable and socially balanced.
2.1 Trends in food consumption patterns – the role
of livestock and dairy products
In large parts of the developing world income growth and urbanization are leading
to increasing overall food consumption and changes in dietary composition,
with a growing proportion of high-value products in the diet, particularly food
of animal origin.
Average per capita daily energy intake in the developing world increased from
1 861 kcal in 1961 (64 percent of the average energy intake in developed countries)
to 2 651 kcal in 2007 (78 percent of the average energy intake in developed countries)
(Figure 2.1).