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Educing Information: Interrogation - National Intelligence University

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name a few. These studies highlight the very complex nature of this problem and<br />

the need for substantially more research on these moderator variables.<br />

Promising Avenues<br />

Alternative methods are emerging and merit study. Some research efforts<br />

have started to explore new methods for validating information. They include the<br />

use of probability theory to assess choice patterns, covert physiological sensor<br />

systems to assist observers in real time, challenges to story construction based<br />

on memory research, 41,70 and intentional distortion methodology to assess report<br />

stability vs. malleability.<br />

Limitations of Current Research Findings<br />

To this point, this review might suggest that some practical means are<br />

available to assist intelligence personnel in validating sources and information.<br />

Unfortunately, shortcomings in the research designs that tested these indicators<br />

dictate caution in relying upon these means at this point.<br />

Motivational/Stress Problem<br />

Most research subjects are relatively calm and undermotivated and do not<br />

represent the populations of interest. In real life, any interrogation situation<br />

is likely to cause high levels of physiological arousal and distress in innocent<br />

and guilty parties alike. Individuals who attempt to conceal information in real<br />

situations probably have a high level of motivation to deceive successfully. It is<br />

almost impossible to obtain the same levels of motivation and arousal in volunteer<br />

subjects. With the exception of field studies developed from real-world situations,<br />

most of the research conducted to date entails little or no stress or true incentive<br />

to deceive effectively: of 120 samples in the DePaulo analysis, 41 68 samples were<br />

classified as using subjects who were under no stress. Researchers are acutely<br />

aware of this problem and have sought to develop laboratory situations that entail<br />

some degree of distress or arousal in subjects, but for the most part they have been<br />

unable to sample behavior involving moderate to higher ranges of motivation<br />

and arousal. It is not known whether these higher levels would result in different<br />

patterns of response, although that assumption seems logical. 71<br />

In most studies, individuals serving as observers/judges are asked to make<br />

assessments that have little personal significance. This situation is unlike that<br />

facing an intelligence collector, who would generally be highly motivated to<br />

obtain information.<br />

Sampling Problems<br />

Subject Sampling<br />

Research has not looked at enough of the right kind of people. Most studies<br />

(over 80 percent) have used college students, while those in applied settings<br />

generally involve incarcerated criminals. The resultant problem is obvious. College<br />

students tend to be drawn from the upper end of the intellectual range, are more<br />

likely to come from relatively affluent socioeconomic backgrounds, and are much<br />

50

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