Tobacco and Public Health - TCSC Indonesia

UK male death rate at ages 35–69 has been decreasing at the rate of 40% per decade in
recent years.) (Peto et al. 2000). Moreover, as those now in middle age progress into old
age over the next decade or two, UK mortality in old age from tobacco should also
decrease substantially.
Unfortunately, however, although there have been substantial decreases in the prevalence
of smoking in some developed populations, there have been large increases
elsewhere, particularly in Chinese males, over the past few decades (Liu et al. 1998;
Peto et al. 1999), and it is difficult to see how worldwide cigarette consumption can
be halved over the next decade or two. Hence, the 100 million tobacco deaths in the
twentieth century are likely to be followed, if present smoking patterns persist, by about
1 billion tobacco deaths in the twenty-first century.
Acknowledgement
This research involved collaboration with J. Boreham, Z.-M. Chen, R. Collins, R. Doll,
V. Gajalakshmi, P.C. Gupta, B.-Q. Liu, and G. Mead, and support from the UK Medical
Research Council, Cancer Research UK and British Heart Foundation.
This article is also published in: Critical Issues in Global Health, edited by C. Everett
Koop et al. (Peto and Lopez 2001). Any part of it can be reproduced without seeking
copyright permission.
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