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Management of Commercially Generated Radioactive Waste - U.S. ...

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66<br />

CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS<br />

individual is killed by the meteorite strike, his dose was not included in the draft<br />

Statement. The dose to this person has been added in the final Statement.<br />

Draft p. 1.20, Table 1.4<br />

Issue<br />

(a) The potential for a dose due to airborne dispersion caused by a meteorite impact<br />

does not appear to have been considered, (b) the units <strong>of</strong> "Health Effects," e.g., acute<br />

fatalitites, morbidities should be defined, (c) the units <strong>of</strong> "Risk," e.g., total health<br />

effects, health effects per year should be defined, and (d) a description <strong>of</strong> how "accident<br />

probabilities" were arrived at and an associated uncertainty should be presented, e.g., both<br />

the probability for meteorite impact and the probability for fault fracture and flooding<br />

were given as 3 x 10-13. Including uncertainty in the estimates.<strong>of</strong> probability is also<br />

important since point estimates <strong>of</strong> probabilities as low as 10 - 13 , are difficult to justify<br />

when little data is available. (208-NRC)<br />

Response<br />

For the meteorite-impact scenario, the airborne dispersion was considered (see DOE/<br />

ET-0029). Appendix E <strong>of</strong> the Statement provides a definition <strong>of</strong> health effects. Derivations<br />

<strong>of</strong> accident probabilities are contained in those sections <strong>of</strong> DOE/ET-0029 where the accidents<br />

are analyzed.<br />

Draft p. 1.20<br />

Issue<br />

One commenter noted that Table 1.4 summarizes the results <strong>of</strong> long-term radiological<br />

impact analyses presented later in Section 3.1.5.2 <strong>of</strong> the Statement. While ranges in the<br />

estimates for health effects are given, there appears little discussion <strong>of</strong> the uncertainties<br />

associated with the stated accident probabilities, particularly for meteorite impact and<br />

fault fracture and flooding. The corresponding uncertainties should be fully addressed in<br />

this presentation. (168)<br />

Response<br />

There is indeed little discussion on uncertainties associated with probabilities used.<br />

The information was not available. It is pointed out that errors in the probability esti-<br />

mate <strong>of</strong> several orders <strong>of</strong> magnitude would not suggest a significant mathematical expectation<br />

<strong>of</strong> societal risk (see final Section 5.5).

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