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Management of Commercially Generated Radioactive Waste - U.S. ...

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5.79<br />

Doses to the population <strong>of</strong> the eastern half <strong>of</strong> the United States were also calculated<br />

and are presented in Table 5.5.5. An assumption is that the prevailing winds in the upper<br />

atmosphere will move the radionuclides released during the accident in an eastward direc-<br />

tion, which will expose about 160 million persons east <strong>of</strong> the midwest reference site. The<br />

2 million persons in the reference population are excluded from this calculation. See<br />

DOE/ET 0029, Sec. 4.4.3, for additional assumptions used in these calculations. The largest<br />

tabulated whole-body dose to the eastern U.S. population <strong>of</strong> 1.5 x 108 man-rem from meteorite<br />

breach <strong>of</strong> spent fuel repository in the year <strong>of</strong> closure may be compared with the 1.1 x 10<br />

man-rem this population would receive from naturally occurring radiation sources over the<br />

same time period.<br />

TABLE 5.5.5. 70-Year Whole-Body Dose Commitment to Population <strong>of</strong> Eastern United<br />

States--Repository Breach by Meteorite Strike, man-rem<br />

Time <strong>of</strong> Event Salt Granite Shale Basalt<br />

Year <strong>of</strong> closure<br />

Spent Fuel 5.6 x 107 1.5 x 108 7.4 x 10 7 1.5 x 108<br />

Reprocessing 5.2 x 107 4.4 x 107 3.2 x 10 7 5.2 x 107<br />

<strong>Waste</strong>s<br />

Closure + 1000 Years<br />

Spent Fuel 1.0 x 107 2.7 x 107 1.3 x 10 7 2.7 x 10 7<br />

Reprocessing 3.8 x 106 3.2 x 106 2.3 x 106 3.8 x 106<br />

<strong>Waste</strong>s<br />

Closure + 100,000<br />

Years<br />

Spent Fuel 1.8 x 105 4.8 x 10 5 2.4 x 105 4.8 x 10 5<br />

Reprocessing 4.9 x 104 4.2 x 104 3.0 x 104 4.9 x 104<br />

<strong>Waste</strong>s<br />

Closure + 1,000,000<br />

Years<br />

Spent Fuel 6.3 x 10 4 1.7 x 10 5 8.5 x 104 1.7 x 105<br />

Reprocessing 5.2 x 10 4 4.4 x 104 3.2 x 104 5.2 x 104<br />

<strong>Waste</strong>s<br />

If a meteorite <strong>of</strong> the size described impacted anywhere in the nation, the area would<br />

probably be declared a disaster area regardless <strong>of</strong> whether or not it impacted over a waste<br />

repository. If a waste repository was nearby, monitoring teams could be dispatched to<br />

determine the levels <strong>of</strong> contamination in air, soils and water. Mitigating action would<br />

depend on the levels <strong>of</strong> activity found in various media and the areas involved. Action<br />

would range from withholding crops from use and moving dairy and beef animals to less con-<br />

taminated areas, to removing contaminated soil where necessary and disposing <strong>of</strong> it under<br />

suitable controls.<br />

The probability <strong>of</strong> a meteorite capable <strong>of</strong> striking the surface over the repository and<br />

producing a crater 2 km in diameter at the surface has been estimated to be 2 x 10-13 per<br />

year (Claiborne and Gera 1974). If the "mathematical expectation <strong>of</strong> societal risk" is taken<br />

as probability times consequence, the societal risk <strong>of</strong> death or serious genetic defect would

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