Management of Commercially Generated Radioactive Waste - U.S. ...

500
400
300
5 200
-_J
100 -
3.13
CASE S
S/ CASE4
| 1 ^ CASE 3
CASE2
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
FIGURE 3.2.3. Nuclear Power Growth Assumptions
Case 1--Present Inventory--This case considers the requirements for management of
approximately 10,000 MTHM of spent fuel that would remain if the 50 GWe of LWR capacity
operating at the beginning of 1980 were shut down at the end of 1980 and all reactor cores
discharged. However, no attempt is made in this Statement to consider or evaluate the
broader issues of an industry shutdown (beyond those associated with handling the waste)
such as national energy policy, impact on the economy, the impacts of alternative energy
sources, costs, and the environmental impacts of such action.
Case 2--Present Capacity--This case considers the requirements for management of
48,000 MTHM of spent fuel that would result from continued operation of the existing 50 GWe
of nuclear capacity to retirement after 40 years of operation with no further additions to
this system. As in Case 1, no attempt is made to consider or evaluate the broader issues
beyond the impact of handling the associated wastes, that would be involved in a limitation
of this sort.
Case 3--250 GWe in Year 2000 and Phaseout--Case 3 assesses the waste management impacts
for all aspects of a complete life cycle of a nuclear generating system including reactor
shutdown, facility decommissioning, etc. In this case nuclear power capacity increases to
250 GWe in the year 2000. (This case follows the EIA high case projection through 1995.)
After the year 2000, no additional nuclear power plant startups are considered. All nuclear
power plants are assumed to operate for a 40-year life, after which they are decommissioned.
Thus, the installed generating capacity of the system is reduced to zero in the year 2040.
Based on average experience to date, average startup capacity factors of 59%, 63%, and 67%
were assumed for the first three years of operation for all nuclear plants. Starting with
the fourth year, each plant was assumed to operate at 70% for 22 years and then decline to
40% in its fortieth year after which it is shut down. A total of 239,000 MTHM of spent fuel
is produced in this case.