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Management of Commercially Generated Radioactive Waste - U.S. ...

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Draft p. 1.20 and 3.1.169<br />

Issue<br />

67<br />

CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS<br />

Several commenters questioned the accident probability used for the solution mining<br />

scenario. (30, 40, 58, 142)<br />

Response<br />

The cited probability was arbitrary and has been removed.<br />

Draft p. 1.20<br />

Issue<br />

Several letters commented on the probability assigned to the drilling event.<br />

Draft p. 1.20--The use <strong>of</strong> 0.005 as the probability <strong>of</strong> drilling is not understood. (40)<br />

Draft p. 3.1.165--The overall probability <strong>of</strong> a contaminated drilling event occurring<br />

can exceed 0.005, since multiple drilling events over a period <strong>of</strong> time are possible. (113-<br />

EPA, 114)<br />

Draft p. 3.1.165-168--If drilling occurs, probability is 0.005 that interception <strong>of</strong> a<br />

canister occurs. Accident consequences are based on 1/4 canister brought to surface and<br />

distributed through top 5 cm (15 cm?) <strong>of</strong> 0.5 ha. Probability <strong>of</strong> drilling actually occurring<br />

in the area is not given. (154)<br />

Response<br />

The first sentence <strong>of</strong> paragraph 3, draft p. 3.1.165, states, "Because it is not pos-<br />

sible to determine a probability for exploratory drilling it was not possible to assign an<br />

overall probability to this event." The probability <strong>of</strong> any one drill hole striking a waste<br />

canister is 0.005 based on areas involved. The text was changed to reflect this fact.<br />

The probability <strong>of</strong> drilling in the repository is considered unlikely but has not been<br />

quantified.<br />

Draft p. 1.20<br />

Issue<br />

One commenter noted there is continued reference to "what if" and "design basis" acci-<br />

dents. The distinctions between these terms are never clearly drawn. (40)

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