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3.12<br />

3.2.2 Nuclear Power Growth Assumptions<br />

To cover the range <strong>of</strong> potential waste management impacts in the years ahead, five dif-<br />

ferent nuclear power growth scenarios are considered in this Statement.<br />

A reference projection <strong>of</strong> 400 GWe <strong>of</strong> installed nuclear power capacity in the year 2000<br />

and a bounding low projection <strong>of</strong> 255 GWe in the year 2000 was used in the original draft<br />

Statement (DOE/EIS-0046 D). Since that report was published for comments, however, studies<br />

(Clark and Reynolds 1979) conducted by DOE's Energy Information Administration (EIA) have<br />

indicated that the year 2000 installed nuclear power capacity is unlikely to exceed<br />

250 GWe.(a) In addition, some comments on the draft Statement stated that the 400 GWe pro-<br />

jection indicated a bias in favor <strong>of</strong> nuclear power development while other commenters<br />

objected that it overstated the magnitude <strong>of</strong> the waste management problem. For these<br />

reasons, the maximum projection for the year 2000 considered in this final Statement has<br />

been established as 250 GWe.<br />

None <strong>of</strong> the projections or scenarios are intended to represent predictions <strong>of</strong> future<br />

developments. They are intended to encompass a possible range <strong>of</strong> nuclear power development<br />

and to provide a reasonable basis for estimates <strong>of</strong> waste management impacts as well as a<br />

basis for either interpolating waste management impacts to intermediate projections or for<br />

extrapolating waste management impacts to higher projected growth rates.<br />

The waste management impacts for these scenarios are presented in Chapter 7.<br />

The five scenarios are described below and the resulting nuclear power capacities are<br />

tabulated in Table 3.2.1 and plotted in Figure 3.2.3.<br />

TABLE 3.2.1. Nuclear Power Capacity Assumptions, GWe<br />

Case 5<br />

Case 3 Case 4 250 GWe<br />

Case 1 Case 2 250 GWe 250 GWe in 2000 to<br />

Present Present in 2000 and in 2000 and 500 GWe<br />

Inventory Capacity Phaseout Constant in 2040<br />

1980 50 50 55 55 55<br />

1985 0 50 113 113 113<br />

1990 0 50 155 155 155<br />

1995 0 50 196 196 196<br />

2000 0 50 250 250 250<br />

2005 0 49 249 250 281<br />

2010 0 44 244 250 312<br />

2015 0 14 214 250 343<br />

2020 0 0 195 250 374<br />

2025 0 0 137 250 405<br />

2030 0 0 95 250 437<br />

2035 0 0 54 250 468<br />

2040 0 0 0 250 500<br />

(a) The referenced report did not project beyond 1995. The figure <strong>of</strong> 250 GWe in the<br />

year 2000 is based on an extrapolation.

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