Australian Politics and Policy - Senior, 2019a

Australian Politics and Policy
attachment to the USA is removed from a clear appraisal of genuine Australian
national interests, and perhaps impedes the development of a more ‘independent’
or ‘mature’ foreign policy for the nation: ‘The long-term efforts binding Australia
to the US have decidedly narrowed Australia’s policy options’, according to Nick
Bisley. 74
Moreover, the dominant concern is that unalloyed support for the USA raises
difficulties with Australia’s primary economic partner and rising regional power:
China. According to Dibb, ‘China wants to be acknowledged as the natural
hegemonofAsiaandtoseeanendtoAmerica’salliancesystemintheregion,
including ANZUS’. 75 Not only is Beijing on record as opposing the US bilateral
alliance system in the region, but, as USA–China rivalry sharpens, Canberra risks
being drawn into a conflict (‘entrapped’) in support of the USA, over a flashpoint
like Taiwan or the South China Sea. 76 Hugh White, whose earlier work discussed
‘choosing’ between Washington (security) and Beijing (economy), points out that
the dependence upon the USA for protection is a fading asset as Chinese power
eclipses that of the USA in, at least, the Asian region. 77 As such, the credibility
of American commitments in Asia are increasingly drawn into question, all while
Washington continues to demand greater support in return.
Conclusions
This chapter highlighted a range of key themes central to the thinking and practice
of Australian foreign and defence policy. Many of the long-term issues are familiar
– how to balance the US alliance with good international citizenship and Asian
engagement–buttheseissuesmaydevelopinnewwaysintothefuture,andnew
pressing issues may emerge that create serious challenges to existing foreign policy
settings. The stresses between these central factors are increasing as US power
and purpose in the Indo-Pacific is undermined both by American policies and
structural decline (the end of ‘unipolarity’), but also by the rise of China and
other Asian powers, which will substantially reshape the regional environment that
Australia inhabits.
Added to this is the prospect that Australia itself will become relatively less
powerful over time and thus less able to influence events into the future – a fact
exacerbated by the diminution of the institutional apparatus, especially DFAT – and
the seemingly unstable pattern of government that has emerged in recent years. 78 In
brief, though Australia will retain a strong state capacity, including military forces,
it will face the future from a weaker position than it has in the past. At the same
74 Bisley 2017, 52.
75 Dibb 2018.
76 Allison 2017.
77 White 2013; White 2017.
78 Lowy Institute 2018.
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