En model for godstransportens udvikling - DCE - Nationalt Center for ...

several goods. That model has been an improvement and a step in the
right direction towards a consistent and more correct description of
the linkage between economic activity and freight transport.
The model developed in this project differs from all of the models
mentioned above by containing both a very detailed descriptions of
the economic activity and the physical transport. The model consists
of 6 primary elements as illustrated in Figure 1. Model inputs are
production and imports in 19 primary sectors and 11 types of import
goods. Using technological and dynamic coefficients the production
and imports of 22 types of goods is calculated. Another calculation
using the value density leads to the production and import measured
in tonnes.
We have found evidence that the transformation from production in
monetary terms to production in tonnes may be unnecessary (apart
from interpretation purposes). This is due to an almost constant value
density.
Figure 1 The principal structure of the model
The separation on different types of goods and the measurement in
tonne leads to an intuitive link with the transport of the goods measured
in tonnes. This linkage is called the handling factor. The handling
factor can be interpreted as an indication of the number of times a
type of goods is reloaded during its lifetime. The factor varies quite a
lot from one type of goods to another (from 0,2 to above 14). This
variation is shown in Figure 2. Some of the handling factors shown
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Macro-economic
Transport
Production in deflated DKK by
(Production in ADAM)
Distributions
Production in categories of goods
Value density
Prod. in categories of goods in tonnes
Handle factor
Transported tonnes by goods
(and mode and size of veh.)
Average load and kms per trip´
Kilometre driven by mode and veh. size
Development in energy efficiency
Energy consumption and emissions