En model for godstransportens udvikling - DCE - Nationalt Center for ...

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1981
Km Observed Km
Difference Difference in %
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Figure 6 Comparison of the predicted traffic performance and the observed
traffic performance for all commodities and all sizes of vehicles over 6 tonnes
in the period 1980 to 1992.
,
It is not possible to compare the model with other similar models in
an unambiguous way because the level of aggregation and demarcation
differ between the models. This accrues to the EMMA model so
that meaningful comparisons can only be made between the consumption
of transport energy in the haulage transport sector.
In EMMA an increase of 33% in the consumption of transport energy
is predicted for the period 1997 to 2010. The development is clearly
smaller than the prediction of 60% (77% unadjusted) in our model.
The primary reason for this relatively large difference is that technological
progresses improving the energy efficiency of the vehicles are
used in the EMMA model for future vehicles.
We have not included such efficiency improvements in our model. It
is not possible to guess what the impact of introducing this in to our
model will be. However, if knowledge of such improvements is
available, they should clearly be used in the model.
Finally, we have compared the forecast with calculations made by the
Danish Road Directorate in their freight transport model. Unfortunately
it has not been possible to obtain calculations on this model
using the same economic basis. The comparison has thus been made
with an earlier calculation using approximately the same predicted
economic development as we have used in our forecasts.
The Danish Road Directorate predicts a growth in traffic performance
of 51% in the period from 1997 to 2016. This estimate is also well below
our estimate, but closer than the case of EMMA. A number of
earlier estimates have used predicted growth rates of 50-75% over
periods of 15 to 20 years. In other words, it is not unheard of that
models predict developments of this size.
Other scenarios
To demonstrate some of the possibilities of the model, two other scenarios
have been calculated. The purpose of these scenarios is not to
16%
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0%
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