En model for godstransportens udvikling - DCE - Nationalt Center for ...
En model for godstransportens udvikling - DCE - Nationalt Center for ...
En model for godstransportens udvikling - DCE - Nationalt Center for ...
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1000 Ton<br />
7000<br />
6000<br />
5000<br />
4000<br />
3000<br />
2000<br />
1000<br />
0<br />
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97<br />
Also <strong>for</strong> the handling factor a number of analyses have been carried<br />
out trying to establish a relation between the economic variables and<br />
the coefficients. Most of the prices investigated should reflect that<br />
higher prices lead to rationalisations in the number of transports carried<br />
out <strong>for</strong> each produced article. It has not been possible to establish<br />
a firm relationship using prices, but to some extent it has been possible<br />
using a trend.<br />
The descriptions are not perfect because many of the handling factors<br />
vary very much. A reason <strong>for</strong> this is the in the data-set containing<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation on the freight transport. There are many indications of<br />
erroneous responses in the original data (even though many of these<br />
have been corrected by Statistics Denmark). At the aggregate level a<br />
well-behaved development in the handling factor can be observed,<br />
but the disaggregation into different types of goods <strong>for</strong> some types of<br />
goods in a picture where no tendencies seem to be present. Figure 3<br />
gives an illustration of the various handling factors and why the estimation<br />
has been so difficult.<br />
TT TX HANDLE<br />
Fertilizer<br />
1000 Ton<br />
250000<br />
200000<br />
150000<br />
100000<br />
50000<br />
0<br />
3,50<br />
3,00<br />
2,50<br />
2,00<br />
1,50<br />
1,00<br />
0,50<br />
0,00<br />
1000 Ton<br />
8000<br />
7000<br />
6000<br />
5000<br />
4000<br />
3000<br />
2000<br />
1000<br />
0<br />
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97<br />
TT TX HANDLE<br />
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97<br />
TT TX HANDLE<br />
Machines etc.<br />
Aggregate<br />
Figure 3 Illustration of the differences in the handling factor in two types of goods and in the aggregate.<br />
In quite a few of the estimations the difficulties is due to a single extreme<br />
observation (like the observation from 1987 in the upper right<br />
figure of Figure 3). But the few observations make it uncertain as to<br />
exactly which of the observations is the extreme one. As a test of the<br />
1,40<br />
1,35<br />
1,30<br />
1,25<br />
1,20<br />
1,15<br />
1,10<br />
1,05<br />
5,00<br />
4,50<br />
4,00<br />
3,50<br />
3,00<br />
2,50<br />
2,00<br />
1,50<br />
1,00<br />
0,50<br />
0,00<br />
33
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