En model for godstransportens udvikling - DCE - Nationalt Center for ...

large, because the value of the aggregated production remains unchanged.
Use of the model
The scenarios shown in this section demonstrate some of the constraints
on the use of the model. Primarily, it is only possible to use
the model to calculate the consequences of certain economic developments.
It is not possible to use the model for analysis of e.g.
changes in the tax on fuel use or other scenarios directed towards the
transport sector. This kind of consequences can only be inferred indirectly
through the change in the production sectors.
Even though the model has been developed using the levels and values
from ADAM, it can in principle be used in connection with other
similar macro-economic models as well if these models use the same
definition of the production sectors. The levels do however need to be
equalised from the alternative model system to the level used in
ADAM.
The future
The analysis we have carried out to be able to develop the model has
demonstrated a very evident need for better and more detailed data
on the freight transport. There are many indications of a possible reduction
in the implication from the inevitable errors by enlarging the
survey.
The model could possibly be improved by getting more and up to
date data. It is not very satisfactory that the information on the economic
production sectors is between 7 and 10 years old. It could
therefore be interesting to get data both before 1980 and after 1992.
However, this is a very cumbersome task that still remains to be
solved.
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