En model for godstransportens udvikling - DCE - Nationalt Center for ...

describe any actual alternative to the basic scenario, but merely to
demonstrate the capabilities of the model.
The first scenario is a simple scenario, where the production in the
agricultural sector is increased by 25% each year.
40
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Ny FX_J Ny PM
FX_J PM
Ny CO2 CO2
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
8,E+07
7,E+07
6,E+07
5,E+07
4,E+07
3,E+07
2,E+07
1,E+07
0,E+00
Figure 7 The influence on the production and the emissions stemming from
the article “Cereals”. “Ny” refers to the alternative scenario, whereas the
other curves indicate the influence from the basic scenario described above.
(Figures in the left hand side bill. DKK, and 1000 kilos of PM, whereas the
left hand side is the figures for 1000 kilos of CO 2 ).
One of the obtainable kinds of information is indicated in Figure 7.
The figure shows the production of the article “Cereals” together
with the corresponding emissions of CO 2 and particulate matter
(PM). The developments in the basic scenario and the alternative scenario
are shown for this particular article.
Changes in the agricultural sector do not influence all types of goods,
so large differences between the different goods can be observed. The
influence from this on the emissions can therefore be quite substantial.
Table 1 The difference in the results year by year when distributed on mode
and size.
Mode Weight Year Tonnes KM NOX CO2 PM
Own 16 2005 0,04 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,03
Haulage 16 2005 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,03
Own 16 2010 0,03 0,02 0,02 0,02 0,02
Haulage 16 2010 0,02 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,03