marketing - Department Wirtschafts- und Betriebswissenschaften

Szenario Szenario-Technik: Szenario Technik: Prinzip I I
� The word "scenario" was made popular by Hermann Kahn ("The
Year 2000").
� A scenario is the description of a future situation arrived at by
alternative assumptions on key variables.
� Note the contrast to trend extrapolation: In Scenario Technique
there is no no single single "future" "future" but several possible, plausible and
consistent "constructions" of the future.
� The main purposes of this technique are
� to draw management's attention to causal processes,
possible discontinuities and particular decision points
� to achieve a high degree of vigilance throughout the
organisation;
� and to foster a learning "into" the future
© Wirtschafts- und Betriebswissenschaften Seite 82