Industrija 2/2011 - Ekonomski institut

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V. P a v l o v i ć , S . M u m i n o v i ć , J . M . C v i j a n o v i ć A p p l i c a t i o n o f S a n d i n & . . . companies in different sectors. ([9], p.303) Bemmann emphasizes that the enterprise size has respectable influence. ([4], p.85) Also, the relationship of the selected variables changes with time due to diverse factors, for example changes in the phases of the business cycle, in the market, in the strategy of the company, in the technology, etc. Changes in the geographical environment affect the variables of companies of the same industry but in different countries or areas due to local economic, political and market conditions. ([9], p.303) Having in mind above mentioned, Sandin and Porporato emphasize that model they built can be useful for classification and prediction of failure of companies operating in emerging economies with macroeconomic conditions similar to those of Argentina in the 1990s. Having in mind that, Sandin & Porporato‟s model tends to have a very high Type II error rate and performs poorly on predicting failure of Serbian listed firms, it comes that macroeconomic conditions in Serbia are not similar to those in Argentina in the 1990s. Sandin & Porpotato‟s model is only looking at the indicators of profitability and solvency. However, Serbian economy has for a number of years now faced the issues of illiquidity. A model which would take into account also a liquidity ratio would have a lower incidence of Type 1 error. On the other hand, the significant Type II error can also be attributed to the consequence of the fact that bankruptcy process in Serbia often starts rather later than in more developed economies. For example, it occasionally happened that some companies which have been insolvent for the period longer than three years didn‟t start the bankruptcy proceedings. Additional difficulty in the use of model is that size of Serbian companies was not similar to those tested in Argentinian model. Our purpose was to test the usefulness of Sandin & Porporato‟s model to predict bankruptcy in Serbia. Since we determined significant Type 1 error, as Type II error we consider that Sandin & Porporato‟s model is not reliable for prediction bankruptcy of Serbian companies. It is significant to emphasize that the model is developed during stable period, unless in the reference period of world economy, including Serbian economy was not in stable period Besides above mentioned specificity of Serbian economy, such as chronic illiquidity, we should emphasize that both macroeconomic ambient and legislation by which bankruptcy is regulated in Argentina and Serbia are different. Nevertheless, we consider that model can be useful as indicator of vulnerability of companies, based on comparison of As index of certain company and As index of others companies from this branch, especially having in mind simplicity of the model. Companies with lower As ratio than normal ratio companies within that branch, should be subject of more detailed analysis, where we necessary have to include indicator based on cash flow as well. REFERENCES 1. Altman, E. (1968): “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy”, The Journal of Finance, (23) September No. 4, 589-609 12
I n d u s t r i j a 2 / 2 0 1 1 . 2. Altman, E. (2000): Predicting Financial Distress of Companies: Revisiting The Z-Score and ZETA Models ftp://iies.faces.ula.ve/Banca/Publicaciones_cientificas_sobre_Riesgo_Ba ncario/modelos%20indices%20especiales/Indicador%20Zscores/Zscore s%20Revisado.pdf 3. Beaver, W. H. (1966): Financial ratios as predictors of failure. Journal of Accounting Research 4: 71-111. 4. Bemmann, M. (2005): Verbesserung der Vergleichbarkeit von Schätzgüteergebnissen von Insolvenzprognosestudien, Dresden Discussion Paper in Economics No. 08/05, Working paper, 2005.06.23. Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business Management and Economics 5. Korol, T., (2011): Multi-Criteria Early Warning System Against Enterprise Bankruptcy Risk, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, (61): 141-154 6. Muminović, S, Pavlović, V. (2007): Izraĉunavanje beta koeficijenta za akcije koje se kotiraju na Beogradskoj berzi, Računovodstvo, Vol. 51, (7- 8): 46-58 7. Pavlović, V., Muminović, S. (2010). Znaĉaj razvoja finansijskih trţišta za srpsku privredu, Industrija Vol. 38(4): 41-67 8. Radivojević, N., Lazić, J., Cvijanović, J. (2009). Possible applications of contemporary portfolio theory on appear markets. Industrija, vol. 37 (4), 1-13 9. Sandin, A., Porporato, M. (2007). Corporate bankruptcy prediction models applied to emerging economies: Evidence from Argentina in the years 1991-1998. International Journal of Commerce and Management 17(4), 295-311. 10. Travar, M., Cvijanović, J., Lazić, J. (2009). Kapacitet za makroekonomske promene. Beograd: Ekonomski institut. 11. Wang, Y., Campbell, M. (2010). Business failure prediction for publicly listed companies in China. Journal of Business and Management 16(1): 75-88 12. Wang, Y., Campbell, M. (2010). Do Bankruptcy Models Really Have Predictive Ability? Evidence using China Publicly Listed Companies, International Management Review Vol. 6 (2): 77-82 13. Ţivković, B., Minović, J. (2010). Illiquidity of Frontier Financial Market: Case of Serbia, Panoeconomicus (3): 349-367 13
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