Industrija 2/2011 - Ekonomski institut

Original Scientific Paper UDK 336.279.001.891.54 (82:497.11)
Vladan Pavlović
Saša Muminović
Janko M. Cvijanović
Application of Sandin & Porporato’s
Bankruptcy Prediction Model on Serbian
Companies
Rezime: U radu su testirane odabrane srpske kompanije modelom koji su razvili Sandin i
Porporato. Sandin i Porporato su imali nameru da testiraju pouzdanost racio analize za
predikciju bankrotstva u ekonomijama u razvoju tokom stabilnog perioda, kao što je sluĉaj
Argentine tokom 90-tih godina XX veka. Njihova namera je bila da razviju model
dostupan investitorima u Argentinske kompanije, kao i kreditorima. Opredeljenje za
primenu ovog modela posledica je ĉinjenice da je reĉ o modelu izraĊenom za ekonomije
u razvoju, pri ĉemu, tvorci modela sugerišu da model moţe biti koristan za predikciju
bankrotstva i u drugim ekonomijama u razvoju. Specifiĉnost modela sastoji se i u
njegovoj jednostavnosti, budući da je komponovan od samo dve varjable.
Kljuĉne reĉi: modeli za predikciju bankrotstva, racio analiza, Sandin-Poporato model,
Beogradska berza
Summary: We applied the models developed by Sandin and Porporato to a sample of
Serbian companies. Sandin and Porporato purpose was to test the usefulness of ratio
analysis to predict bankruptcy in a period of stability of an emerging economy, such as
the case of Argentina in the 1990s with the aim to develop a classification method that is
publicly available to all investors and creditors of Argentinean companies. Decision for
usage of Sandin & Porporato‟s model is result of the fact that the model was built
specially for certain emerging market, where creators of the model suggest that the
model can be used to predict business failure on the other emerging economies.
Characteristic of the model can be seen in its simplicity, since it is composed of just two
variables.
Keywords: models for bankruptcy prediction, ratio analysis, Sandin&Porporato‟s Model,
Belgrade Stock Exchange
Received 29 June 2010; received in revised form 05. March 2011; accepted 06
May 2011
Graduate School of Business Studies, Megatrend University,
vpavlovic@megatrend.edu.rs
Julon, d.d., Ljubljana, Slovenia, Member of the Aquafil Group
This paper forms part of the results of research on project 179001
„Organizational and information support to the quality management system as a
key factor in improving the competitiveness of domestic enterprises and
ensuring their faster access to EU and world markets“ financed by Ministry of
Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia
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