Industrija 2/2011 - Ekonomski institut

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Pregledni naučni članak UDK 338.124.4:631.1(497.11)”1932-1936” Dragana Gnjatović Vesna Aleksić Rescuing Agricultural and Banking Sector from Collapse: Agricultural Debt Consolidation in Yugoslavia 1932-1936 Rezime: U radu se analizira odgovor vlade Kraljevine Jugoslavije na pretnju totalnog kolapsa poljoprivrednog i bankarskog sektora u zemlji za vreme Velike svetske ekonomske krize. Ponašanje tadašnjih nosilaca ekonomske politike je instruktivno za tekuću svetsku ekonomsku krizu i njen uticaj u Srbiji. U poĉetku, postojala je tendencija da se potceni dubina privredne krize. Tek kada je nastao dubok krizni poremećaj, primenjene su adekvatne mere ekonomske politike. Kljuĉne reĉi: Velika svetska ekonomska kriza, drţavna intervencija, Kraljevina Jugoslavija Summary: The paper analyzes the government policy response to realistic threat of total collapse of agricultural and banking sector in The Kingdom of Yugoslavia during Great Depression. The pattern of the policy makers‟ behavior is instructive for present world economic crisis and its impact in Serbia. At first, there was a tendency to underestimate the depth of economic crisis. Only when deep crisis distress occurred, adequate economic policy measures have been implemented. Keywords: Great Depression, government intervention, Kingdom of Yugoslavia Received 22 December 2010; received in revised form 25. January <strong>2011</strong>; accepted 17 February <strong>2011</strong>. Graduate School of State Administration, Megatrend University, Belgrade dgnjatovic@megatrend.edu.rs Graduate School of International Economy, Megatrend University, Belgrade Paper prepared within Research Project “Advancing Public Policy in Serbia as a Function of Improving Citizen's Social Safety and Attaining Sustainable Economic Growth”, no. III 47004, financed by The Ministry of Science of Serbia The first publication of paper presented at The Fifth SEEMHN (South East European Monetary Policy Network) Annual Conference: "Monetary Policy during Economic Crises: a Comparative and Historical Perspective", Istanbul, Turkey, April 16, 2010 284
I n d u s t r i j a 2 / 2 0 1 1 . 1. INTRODUCTION I n mid 1931, Great Depression had paralyzed the banking sector operations in Yugoslavia, vastly due to arrears in agricultural debt repayments. At that moment, agricultural debts had reached seven billion dinars. Until 1926, at times of agrarian prosperity, that would have been sustainable debt burden. However, when purchasing power of agricultural producers weakened significantly, this burden became unbearable. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the government policy response from 1932 to 1936 to realistic threat of total collapse of agricultural and banking sector in Yugoslavia. This analysis would show the pattern of the policy makers‟ behavior that could be instructive for the present world economic crisis situation and its impact on Serbian economy [2]. Namely, at first, there was a tendency to underestimate the depth of economic crisis, which lead to week, inadequate policy response [3]. Only when the situation in real and financial sectors worsened further, economic policy response was strong enough to prevent agricultural producers and banks from complete disaster. The first part of the paper gives a short overview on financial position of agricultural producers in Yugoslavia at the outbreak of Agrarian Crisis in 1926. The exposure of banks to agriculture was not an issue during the period of after World War prosperity and the rise of the prices of agricultural products. It only became clear how much banks depend on agriculture when in 1929 The Banking Association from Belgrade urged Government to deal with accumulated agricultural debt arrears that could paralyze overall banking sector. [9] The second part of the paper explains main characteristics of interwar banking crisis in Yugoslavia. This crisis had revealed particularly the vulnerability of small, weak private banks which depended heavily on agricultural debtors who borrowed short term loans for the financing of long term agricultural investments. The third part of the paper deals with the first and second policy response to agricultural debt problem in Yugoslavia from 1929 to 1936. First, the reasons for establishing The Privileged Agrarian Bank in 1929 and its alleged role in rescuing agricultural debtors are explained. Second, the 1932 Law on Protecting Agricultural Producers, which introduced partial banking moratorium, is analyzed. With the implementation of this Law the situation in Yugoslav economy was aggravating only, even though from 1932 to 1935 the Government introduced several more successive palliative measures to rescue indebted peasants. Second policy response to agricultural debt problem in Yugoslavia came in 1936 with Regulation on Writing Off of Agricultural Debts, which introduced agricultural debt reduction. Special attention is paid to new role of The Privileged Agrarian Bank, which served as an instrument of government intervention in agricultural debt consolidation. Finally, the fourth part of the paper discusses the turning point of banking crisis that happened thanks to the 1933 Regulation on the protection of banks and their clients. This Regulation enabled private banks to converse short term peasants‟ debts into long term ones and to survive until 1936, when those debts were written off. 285
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