Public Sector Governance and Accountability Series: Budgeting and ...

The Budget and Its Coverage 75
contingent liabilities for direct spending or making promises for the
future to overcome immediate pressures. This tendency makes future
problems worse than they would have been had the risks been confronted
in the first place.
Unfunded liabilities are explained partly by the variety of sources of fiscal
risk for central governments and partly by the fact that they are insufficiently
taken into account when formulating the budget. Pension liabilities are
demographically driven and, in most countries, are increasing steadily.
Financing requirements for health care are rising in aging societies. Meanwhile,
lack of funding for the recurrent costs of investment reduces the
efficiency of the original investment, and government commitments and
promises outside the budgetary systems reduce fiscal sustainability.
Sound budgeting and policy formulation requires a wider approach,
covering the fiscal risks governments face in the short term as well as in the
long term. Good methodologies are needed, especially actuarial ones. Most
important, however, are political determination, leadership, and effective
communication of the fiscal realities to the public. Accordingly, the obligations
arising from current or new expenditure programs and policy measures
must be assessed realistically, whatever their nature (implicit or explicit,
direct or contingent). Explicit liabilities, both actual and contingent, should
be disclosed in the budget documentation. Implicit contingent liabilities, by
definition, cannot be quantified or predicted accurately; however, the reality
of their existence should add to fiscal prudence efforts, and decision-making
mechanisms should be in place to permit a rapid and efficient response if
and when the event occurs.
Certain instruments reviewed in this book can help in this assessment
and disclosure. For example, multiyear expenditure programming permits
governments to assess the fiscal sustainability of ongoing policy commitments
over a medium-term period, as well as some implicit liabilities (such
as the recurrent costs of investment projects; see chapter 8). However, these
instruments are neither necessary nor sufficient for assessing fiscal risk. The
key requirements are as follows:
Awareness of the existence of fiscal risks
Some assessment
Full disclosure
Explicit consideration of fiscal risks during the budgeting process.
Transparency, candor, and good judgment can go a long way to help recognize
and address fiscal risk.