Public Sector Governance and Accountability Series: Budgeting and ...

Budgeting in Postconflict Countries 451
may well be made jointly during the same process of postconflict needs
assessment.)
A good “no” is better than several bad “yeses.” Missed opportunities can
be recouped, but major mistakes are hard to undo.
Open the expenditure “black boxes”—for example, for military expenditure
or resettlement or demobilization—or at least put them on the table
so that the total amount of funding is known.
A zoological taxonomy of investment projects
To tailor the degree of scrutiny to different types of investment projects and
decide on the appropriate policy response, decision makers may find the following
analogy helpful:
“Black Cows”are large, sound, well-financed projects with a major potential
effect on economic activity and productivity. Black Cows are the
strategic projects discussed at the beginning of this chapter and are to be
encouraged and supported as the backbone of recovery and reconstruction.
The key issue in examining Black Cows is optimal project design for
maximum impact.
“Pink Piglets” are smaller projects, usually undertaken for patronage; systems
maintenance; or political, security, and regional reasons. They can be
important for the political economy of reconstruction but should be individually
programmed. Pink Piglets are normally unsuited to cost-benefit
analysis, because the political or security benefits are largely intangible, but
they should still be subject to the test of common sense, through a contestable
dialogue between the central ministry and the project proponents.
“Gray Rabbits” are small investments that are intended for geographically
dispersed activities in pursuit of social and humanitarian objectives or to
spur local production in certain areas. Their implementation is usually subcontracted
to nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) or local communities.
These projects can make a worthwhile contribution to the country’s
recovery and produce some important visible “quick wins.”Gray Rabbits are
too small to warrant cost-benefit analysis, but the overall total expenditure
on them must be limited, and their implementation must be monitored—
because these activities, like their zoological namesake, tend to reproduce
very fast and cause unexpected accountability and integrity problems.
Finally, “White Elephants” are extremely costly ideological or “prestige”
projects, which also entail large future current expenditure requirements
but have little impact on production and economic growth. Just one or
two White Elephant projects can jeopardize the entire investment program