Public Sector Governance and Accountability Series: Budgeting and ...

Burundi: An Encouraging Case
Budgeting in Postconflict Countries 453
Since its independence in 1962, Burundi has been in almost continuous conflict—repressed
for some periods only to flare up periodically. Burundi’s
population consists of a Hutu majority, a large Tutsi minority, and a smaller
Twa group. Until recently, Burundi’s governments have been led by Tutsis.
Coups and spasms of mass violence, with the victims mainly Hutus, have
punctuated the history of the country. In 1963, and then again in 1972, 1988,
and 1993, large-scale massacres preceded or followed military coups. The
last such event, ensuing from the assassination in 1993 of Melchior Ndadaye,
the first Hutu elected president of the country, led to widespread civil war
for a decade. The total number of victims of internal conflict is always difficult
to estimate with reasonable confidence, but over the entire period from
1962 to 2003, credible estimates for Burundi are of at least 500,000 people
killed, 1 million people internally displaced, and another million refugees in
neighboring countries, mainly Rwanda and Tanzania—in a country with a
total population of barely 7 million.
Tragically, Burundi’s history could have been entirely different from the
beginning, were it not for the 1961 assassination of Prince Louis Rwagasore,
a Tutsi slated to become prime minister as leader of an ethnically mixed
party that advocated tolerance and interethnic amity. Thus, viewing the conflict
in Burundi as exclusively ethnic—between the minority Tutsis in power
and the majority Hutus—is an oversimplification. First, the ruling elite was
only a segment of the Tutsi population, and many Tutsis were excluded from
power. Second, economic causes—primarily conflict over land—were a
major contributing factor. Nevertheless, however fostered, magnified, and
exploited for the benefit of the ruling elite, ethnic fear and hostility have
indeed become the major causes of the conflict.
The first step toward a resolution of the conflict was the Arusha Agreement
of 2000, signed by the government and the main rebel groups, which set in
motion a phased peace process. Although armed conflict continued, its intensity
lessened, and the process gradually led to a new constitution, which was
approved overwhelmingly by referendum in February 2005. This success was
followed by rounds of free elections, culminating in the election of a new president,
Pierre Nkurunziza (the leader of the former main Hutu rebel group), and
the installation of a new government in August 2005. In mid-2006, the last
holdout rebel group signed the peace agreement, and the political and security
situation appeared stable—buttressed by the keen desire on the part of most
Burundians to put their country’s violent history behind them.
Owing to the years of conflict, the new government has inherited an
economy characterized by endemic poverty, overwhelming debt, widespread