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important, and enduring patterns” 710 , of which second- and third-tier powers clearlyhad no part. Neoclassical realism analyses the impact of changes in relative poweron the foreign policies of states, and is therefore particularly apposite as aframework for the analysis of rising powers and emerging states.Applying neoclassical realism to two formerly peripheral polities provides anopportunity for the theory on FPA for the developing world to be updated. Asnoted in Chapter 1, a key point of departure for the FPA literature on thedeveloping world has been that of state weakness. This has precluded discussion ofconcepts such as ‘grand strategy’, strategies of emergence, and international agency,which are all now at the disposal of formerly peripheral states, owing to theirexpanded material capabilities. There is also much more information available aboutthe circumstances influencing foreign policy decisions in the developing world – tosome extent, because of the advent of democracy – than hitherto.South Africa and Brazil each represent a ‘tough’ test of the neoclassical realisttheory, because each of these states occupies relatively peaceful regionalenvironments, and the United States, a historical ‘offshore balancer’ in both regions,has been largely absent from both during the period under consideration. It mighthave been expected, therefore, that South Africa and Brazil would take advantage ofsuch a scenario to expand their reach (economically, militarily and diplomatically)into the respective regions over which they currently tower in economic and militaryterms. However, foreign policy expansion depends on policymakers’ perceptions oftheir place in the international context, as well as how they perceive shifts in therelative distribution of power, regionally and globally. Expansion also depends uponwhether, and how, decision-makers are able to mobilise and extract national poweror resources, converting it into state power. That neither state has selectedaggressive expansion – as might be predicted by neorealism – is explained bydomestic factors, such as prevailing ideologies and party politics, in addition tosystemic factors and power balances.These conclusions mean that the dominant mode of analysing middle powers,chiefly as expressions of the diffusion of liberal economic and political principles,710 Waltz, Theory of International Politics, 70.291