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Download - LSE Theses Online - London School of Economics and ...

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commitment”: “in other words, the government engages in low-risk behaviour <strong>and</strong> <strong>of</strong>tenavoids changes in policy”, in order to accommodate political opposition to its policies. 50This is just one <strong>of</strong> three possible alternatives that a government has in dealing withpolitical opposition to its chosen foreign policy. The other two are ‘mobilisation’ 51through legitimation <strong>of</strong> the regime <strong>and</strong> its policies; <strong>and</strong>, ‘insulation’, through themarginalisation <strong>of</strong> opposition. All three alternatives can have clear consequences inforeign policy outcomes. Accommodation may see a government being able to winover its critics, either by adopting a more muted line (avoiding risk), or by ‘paying<strong>of</strong>f’ opposition with side-payments. Legitimation <strong>of</strong> the regime sees leadersdiscrediting their adversaries, potentially resulting in more forceful foreign policyactions. Accommodation is the focus here because it is more prominent inparliamentary democracies or factionalised ruling parties. Legitimation reflects astrategy <strong>of</strong> greater coercion, where opponents cannot be co-opted, <strong>and</strong> also tends tooccur in periods <strong>of</strong> great political instability. Insulation, meanwhile, is a commonstrategy for political leaders hoping to “deflect or reduce domestic constraints ontheir foreign policy choices”, by closing the issue <strong>of</strong>f from public scrutiny <strong>and</strong>debate. 52Neoclassical realism will thus be utilised as a theoretical framework for analysing thestrategies <strong>of</strong> emergence <strong>of</strong> South Africa <strong>and</strong> Brazil, respectively. This framework isdeveloped in Chapter 3. With a shift in power at the system level as a centralassumption, the hypotheses guiding the enquiry are as follows:Hypothesis 1: The greater the institutional freedom <strong>and</strong> legitimating capacity <strong>of</strong> thegoverning party, the more autonomy inheres in key decision-making structures, thecloser the model approximates neorealism’s unitary actor. Decisions to allocateresources to international issues will be based on hard power considerations <strong>and</strong>50 Joe Hagan, Political Opposition <strong>and</strong> Foreign Policy in Comparative Perspective(Boulder & <strong>London</strong>: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1993): 128. Emphasis added.51 The term ‘mobilisation’ is used here in a different sense to that employed in theremainder <strong>of</strong> the thesis. Here it is used by Hagan to denote a potential instrument usedby governments for managing opposition to foreign policy, while the usage in the rest <strong>of</strong>the thesis refers to the proactive promotion <strong>of</strong> national wealth <strong>and</strong> military strength for agiven purpose, in this case foreign policy. Where the first meaning is intended, this willbe indicated.52 Joe Hagan, “Chapter 8: Domestic Political Explanations in the Analysis <strong>of</strong> ForeignPolicy”, pp117-143, in Foreign Policy Analysis: Continuity <strong>and</strong> Change in its SecondGeneration, eds., Laura Neack, Jeanne A.K Hey, Patrick J. Haney (Englewood Cliffs:Prentice-Hall, 1995): 117-143.37

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