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Download - LSE Theses Online - London School of Economics and ...

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argument, <strong>and</strong> rational cost-benefit analyses. Clearly, this could be a doubleedgedfactor, as party values (regime survival) could be in competition withsocietal values (national survival): which hold the day? How does this affect theimplementation <strong>of</strong> a foreign policy action? As noted by Taliaferro, “The ability<strong>of</strong> states to extract resources from society is not simply a function <strong>of</strong> thestrength <strong>of</strong> institutions: it also depends on leaders’ ability to raise <strong>and</strong> maintainsupport for national security strategies”. 195 Legitimating power tends to varywith the perception <strong>of</strong> external threat by the public, as well as the extent <strong>of</strong>social cohesion generally, <strong>and</strong> the level <strong>of</strong> ideological inclination in society. 196These two variables more than any others determine the conversion <strong>of</strong> nationalpower into state power, <strong>and</strong> indeed the mobilisation <strong>and</strong> extraction <strong>of</strong> nationalresources for foreign policy purposes. For this reason, the focus on the cognitiveuniverses, or ‘operational codes’ 197 <strong>of</strong> individual leaders is not primary in this study.A leader’s beliefs about the limits <strong>of</strong> politics, the weight <strong>of</strong> history, <strong>and</strong> the nature <strong>of</strong>politics <strong>and</strong> political conflict, while important, are ultimately only a minor factorrelative to his ability to win the mobilisation <strong>and</strong> extraction <strong>of</strong> state resources forforeign policy. The latter two abilities depend upon the leader’s place in a legislativesystem, <strong>and</strong> his legitimacy in the eyes <strong>of</strong> his constituents <strong>and</strong> those who control thelevers <strong>of</strong> state power.How can we hypothesise foreign policy outcomes from the relative strength <strong>of</strong>governing parties in mobilising <strong>and</strong> extracting national power? With a basicassumption <strong>of</strong> a shift in relative power:Hypothesis 1: The greater the institutional freedom <strong>and</strong> legitimating capacity <strong>of</strong> thegoverning party, the more autonomy inheres in key decision-making structures, thecloser the model approximates neorealism’s unitary actor. Decisions to allocateresources to international issues will be based on hard power considerations <strong>and</strong>exercised more frequently, where the state possesses the resources to do so. The state will act inline with neorealism’s predictions, behaving competitively <strong>and</strong> aggressively.195 Taliaferro, “State Building for future wars”, 489.196 Taliaferro, “State Building for future wars”, 491.197 George, Alex<strong>and</strong>er, cited in Neack, The New Foreign Policy, 60.98

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