LCA Food 2012 in Saint Malo, France! - Manifestations et colloques ...

PARALLEL SESSION 1B: TOWARDS LIFE CYCLE SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT 8 th Int. Conference on LCA in the
Agri-Food Sector, 1-4 Oct 2012
70
Figure 1. Uses of Walloon cereal resources in 2010.
3.3. Scenario definition
The definition of “4F” scenarios is the basis for the subsequent steps of the project and was thus effectively
supported by involved stakeholders. Cereal flows (production, export, import, stock) have been evaluated
thanks to expert consultation and available relevant data and literature. These flows, integrating historic
trends and projections by 2030, helped defining the baseline scenario (2010) as well as future potential scenarios
for cereal uses in Wallonia (2030).
Scenarios consider interactions between chains and their co-products, as well as potential impacts on the
agricultural landscape and land occupation in Wallonia. They have been established with contrasting hypotheses:
(1) “Business-as-usual” scenario: current trends are extrapolated from the past 15 years; (2) “Strategic”
scenario: environmental, economic and social optimisation of current system; (3) “Localisation” scenario:
development of new cereal conversion units in Wallonia (added value relocated within the region) and
increased autonomy; and (4) “Globalisation” scenario: world demand drives cereal resources outside Wallonia
(massive export), and Wallonia focuses on high added-value products (biorefinery, bio-based chemistry)
(Figure 2).
1000 T DM
100%
4 500
4 000
3 500
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0
0%
6%
17%
16%
57%
4%
Grains Forage maize Straw Total
6%
16%
13%
64%
5%
16%
28%
36%
15%
Figure 2. Production and uses of main Walloon cereal resources (wheat, barley, spelt, grain maize and forage
maize) in the 4 scenarios (DM = dry matter).
Export
Fibre (animal litter)
Fuel (ethanol & biogas)
Feed
Food
2010 - baseline 2030 - B-a-U 2030 - strategic 2030 - localisation 2030 -
globalisation
9%
12%
11%
43%
25%
31%
8%
33%
28%
Export
Fibre (litter, insulator)
Fuel/Biorefinery 1G+2G
Feed
Food