2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
Figure 8 Cumulative global number of AI/H5N1 human cases and deaths, 2003-2006
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2003 2004 2005 2006
cases
deaths
Source: WHO (includes only laboratory-confirmed cases)
All of the confirmed human cases and deaths were in developing countries (Figure 9 and Figure 10).
Vietnam and Indonesia account for two thirds of the fatalities. The countries with the highest incidence
tend to have the highest concentration of human and poultry population in the developing world, pointing
to the increased risk posed by this factor. For example, in Lao PDR and Cambodia the total number of
poultry losses and human fatalities was low. Apart from the smaller population of the two countries, a
factor believed to have contributed to the lower losses are the low human/poultry population densities
which provide less favourable conditions for the H5N1 virus to establish itself and spread (A91).
Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 86