2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5
Public health effects of a pandemic influenza (1)
Attack rate Number of people Cost (million US$, Share of each Cost (million US$, Cost as % of GDP
(2)
1995) (4)
category 2005) (4) (5)
(2005) (5) (6)
Hospitalisations 15% 314,000 1,928 2.7% 2,352 0.02%
35% 734,000 4,499 2.7% 5,489 0.04%
Outpatient visits 15% 18,000,000 5,708 8.0% 6,964 0.06%
35% 42,000,000 13,318 8.0% 16,248 0.13%
Clinically ill (3) 15% 20,000,000 4,422 6.2% 5,395 0.04%
35% 47,000,000 10,317 6.2% 12,587 0.10%
Deaths 15% 89,000 59,288 83.1% 72,331 0.58%
35% 207,000 138,340 83.1% 168,775 1.35%
Total economic impact (4) 15% 71,346 2.7% 87,042 0.70%
35% 166,474 1.2% 203,098 1.63%
Notes:
(1) Mean estimates of the possible effects of an influenza pandemic in the US. (source: A5)
(2) The distribution of cases was based on lower and upper estimates of age-specific attack rates from the 1918, 1928-29, and 1957 epidemics and pandemics
(3) Mean number of clinically ill not seeking medical care but still sustaining economic loss
(4) Estimated costs, on the basis of medical costs and value of lost work days. Excludes other disruptions to commerce and society.
(5) Cost (in 1995 million US$) adjusted to 2005 $ value. In 2005, $1.00 from 1995 is worth: $1.22 using the GDP deflator
(6) 2005 GDP: 12,456 billion US $ (source: IMF)
Assumptions made
Category of PH impact Age group Mean
(yrs)
Total cases at high
risk (%)
Death 0-19 9.0
20-64 40.9
65 + 34.4
Total 84.3
Hospitalizations 0-19 4.6
20-64 14.7
65 + 18.3
Total 37.6
Outpatients 0-19 5.0
20-64 10.4
65 + 4.0
Total 19.5
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