2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs Table 25 Estimated global impact: indirect costs, HPAI Impact: scenario 1 (most likely) Ripple: domestic market (a) Ripple: export markets (a) Spill-over: tourism (b) Wider society (c) Total impact Indirect costs/losses: Global impact, annual (i) 5,279,017 3,774,984 72,000,000 311,150,000 392,204,001 711,200,000 792,254,001 Indirect costs/losses: Global impact, total (i) 10,558,034 7,549,968 144,000,000 622,300,000 784,408,002 1,422,400,00 0 1,584,508,002 (a) Total net impact on domestic and international markets: depends on impact of outbreak on consumer demand and price levels and proportion of producers/production affected; unaffected producers/countries may actually gain from higher prices. Excludes other potential ripple effects, notably the impact on agricultural input sectors, due to lack of evidence/data. (b) Costs to the economic sectors of tourism/travel only covered here. Other potentially affected economic sectors (e.g. services) excluded, due to lack of evidence/data. (c) Economic impact based on the public health effects of a pandemic influenza. Excludes other potential impacts, such as environmental effects, due to lack of evidence/data. Low value assumes 15% attack rate; high value assumes 35% attack rate. (i) The 'global' impact is indicated per year and in total, depending on the assumptions for duration of the epidemic. Source: “OIE Del1 global costs analysis.xls”, Agra CEAS Consulting. Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 152
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs Figure 19 Overview of estimated indirect impacts under the different scenarios, HPAI 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 '000 US$ 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 Impact: scenario 1 (most likely) Impact: scenario 2 (low impact) Impact: scenario 3 (high impact) Ripple: domestic market (a) Ripple: export markets (b) 450,000,000 400,000,000 350,000,000 300,000,000 '000 US$ 250,000,000 200,000,000 150,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 0 Impact: scenario 1 (most likely) Impact: scenario 2 (low impact) Impact: scenario 3 (high impact) Ripple: domestic market (a) Ripple: export markets (b) Spill-over: tourism (c ) Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 153
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The World Organisation for Animal H
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