2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
6. Global overview
6.1. Overall approach and objectives
We have structured the overview as a global analysis of prevention costs versus outbreak costs. While the
costs of prevention are relatively well documented in the estimates provided, for example in the case of
HPAI by the competent international bodies on their worldwide needs assessments (section 4.2), the world
wide direct and indirect impact of an animal disease has not yet been analysed as such. Estimating these
costs would allow drawing conclusions on the expected potential benefits of investing in improved
prevention, as well as on the anticipated scale of the direct production control costs and losses which is of
use to part II of the analysis.
To fill this gap, we have developed a specific analytical tool incorporating a baseline, scenarios and
assumptions on key parameters from which to estimate the detailed direct and indirect costs of a disease
outbreak.
It is important to note that the aim here has been to develop a flexible tool, rather than solely providing
estimates as such. This means that the baseline, the assumptions and the scenarios can be
improved/refined at any point in time, as further research and evidence on a disease impact becomes
available. This tool allows a flexible approach, which highlights the relative importance of the various
direct and indirect impacts, so as to provide direction to policy-making in this field.
In this report this tool has been developed specifically for the case of HPAI, but it has the potential to be
adapted for application in the case of other TADs. In the case of HPAI, the available research to date as
well as the nature of the disease and its economic impacts allows a more detailed approach for the
calculation of worldwide direct and indirect impacts. In the case of FMD, the available evidence is largely
sporadic, in that it is based on specific measures and countries/regions, and is therefore heavily dependent
on specificities which do not allow sensible extrapolations to be made at a world level (as discussed in
section 4.4). However, this tool could be easily adapted to derive estimates of the worldwide effects of
FMD when such research and evidence becomes available. In the meantime we have used the experience
of Argentina and the wider Latin America region from our case study, to draw some conclusions on
prevention versus outbreak costs.
6.2. Economic analysis of outbreak costs
The analytical tool, as developed and applied in the case of HPAI, is attached as a separate spreadsheet
file (Annex 5). The following sections describe the parameters used, the applied baseline, scenarios and
assumptions, and the derived estimates 136 .
136 The layout of the spreadsheet is detailed in the “READ ME FIRST” worksheet.
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