2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
Investing in measures to improve the prevention and control of animal diseases is costly, and the priorities
for each country need to be established on a case by case basis depending on their current status, capacity
and level of development 32 . This necessitates cost-benefit analysis, preferably in advance of the
measures/programmes. This type of analysis is cumbersome (both in the applied methodology and in data
requirements), and results depend highly on the assumptions made, as will be discussed in sections 4 and
4.4 respectively.
Three main benefits of improved prevention are most widely explored in the available literature. These are
as follows:
4. enhanced food security / poverty alleviation. This includes the benefits accrued from
productivity improvements and generally improved production systems.
5. improved market access
6. savings in potential outbreak costs
In terms of the first objective, it is important to note that an estimated 600 million poor people worldwide
rely directly on livestock production for their livelihoods. Several parts of the developing world, most
notably sub-Saharan Africa, are still below the recommended protein diet levels and only get a fraction of
the daily livestock protein intake of industrialised countries 33 . In addition, each year the population of
developing countries grows by an estimated 72 million, with the highest growth rates in Africa and in
Asia, adding to the demand for food products 34 . Average annual per capita consumption of all meats in the
developed world is thus projected to increase to 30 kgs, which represents an increase by about a third on
1993 levels 35 (A96). Improved animal health not only guarantees food supplies but is also considered to
be a major factor for productivity gains in the livestock sector.
In terms of the second objective, trade in livestock and livestock products makes up approximately one
sixth of global agricultural trade. Most of these exports (nearly 80%) currently come from the developed
world (Figure 1). For example, the least developed countries are estimated to account for only less than
5% of total world meat exports by value. Within this overall picture only a few countries account for the
bulk of exports: 90 % of exports of beef and poultry (70% for pork) come from 5 countries.
The only OIE developing/transition countries with a substantial export presence in the world today are
Brazil and Thailand. Three countries account for 26.3% of trade in chicken meat (by value): Brazil 17.3%,
Thailand with 4.7% and China with 4.3% (including Hong Kong then China accounts for 8.5% of trade).
32 This approach is generally advocated in the area of food safety, see for example A134.
33 Average daily per capita livestock protein intake in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2002 was 9.3 grams (representing
actually a drop on 1980 levels), compared to 16.2 grams in developing Asia (an increase of 131% on 1980 levels),
34.1 in Latin America (24% increase from 1980), and 56.1 grams in industrialised countries.
34 Source: world Bank, based on growth rates during 1991-2001. The highest growth rate is in sub-Saharan Africa
(2.8%), followed by rest of Africa (2.6%), South Asia (2.1%) and Latin America/Caribbean (2.0%).
35 IFPRI projections on the basis of a global food model (IMPACT).
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