2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
Two emerging economies account for 9.6% of trade in beef (by value): Brazil with 6.7% and Argentina
with 2.9% (Uruguay, a developing country, accounts for 2.3% of trade). Finally, four developing or
emerging economies countries account for 8.7% of trade in pigmeat (by value): Brazil with 3.8%, China
with 2%, Hungary with 1.7% and Mexico with 1.4%.
Figure 1 Share of global livestock product exports by key world regions (by value)
Share of livestock Export
85.0%
80.0%
75.0%
70.0%
65.0%
60.0%
55.0%
50.0%
45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Developed Countries
Newly industrialized
countries
Emerging Economies
Developing Country
Source: UN COMTRADE data
It is widely acknowledged in the available literature that big gains are possible for the developing
countries from removal of sanitary barriers now that post URAA tariff barriers have been reduced (e.g.
A141); these opportunities are likely to expand if tariff barriers are further reduced in the ongoing WTO
and bilateral negotiations. Within this evolving policy outlook, the improvement in SPS conditions for
developing country exporters or potential exporters has become an issue of utmost importance (as well as
being an obligation under the WTO SPS Agreement).
Furthermore, benefits are expected to accrue in terms of the potential savings to be made in outbreak costs
from the fact that with improved prevention and veterinary services such outbreaks can be avoided
altogether or their frequency reduced or at the very least their costs can be minimised. However, it is
important to note that currently the cost-benefit of any investment aiming to improve early
detection/diagnosis would tend to be unreliable as at present there are no accurate epidemiological
modelling studies in the developing world of the rate of disease spread with late diagnosis versus early
diagnosis (see for e.g. A7). Similarly, there is limited data and information on certain suspected risk
Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 38