2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
These parameters are outlined in more detail the “Assumptions outbreak costs” worksheet of Annex 5.
6.2.2. Scenarios and assumptions
Our estimations start from a baseline which contains data derived from the combined analysis of literature
review and the case studies. In particular, the baseline on direct outbreak costs includes data from the case
studies on Vietnam and Nigeria but also developments in other parts of the world and global
developments as documented in the literature. The baseline on indirect outbreak costs is largely based on
the available evidence of world developments from the existing literature. The baseline is summarised in
the “Assumptions outbreak costs” worksheet, and further detailed in the “Vietnam HPAI”, “Nigeria
HPAI”, “global HPAI” and “pandemic effects” worksheets (Annex 5).
Assumptions are made in order to extrapolate from the baseline to the country ‘clusters’. At a general
level, these assumptions include duration of the impact (which depends on the duration and re-occurrence
of the epidemic), the rate of disease spread and the coverage (in terms of countries). At a cost-specific
level, assumptions are made on the key parameters that define each type of cost. In the case of direct
production costs and losses, these include the extent of poultry population loss, market value,
culling/disposal costs, and control costs per head of poultry, and loss of income from business disruption
(as indicated above).
A total of six scenarios have been formulated, as indicated in Annex 5:
• At a country level, scenario 1 (“most likely”), scenario 2 (“low impact”) and scenario 3 (“high
impact”) vary in terms of the duration of the impact of the epidemic and the intensity of disease
spread within countries.
• At a global level, scenario A, scenario B and scenario C are formulated on the basis of the
geographical coverage of the disease worldwide, with scenario A including only H5N1 infected
countries, scenario B infected and ‘non infected at immediate risk’ countries, and scenario C all
developing/transition countries that are members of the OIE 139 .
The following comments can be made concerning the assumptions made on the various parameters.
Markets (prices and trade):
We have taken developments in world poultry markets since the 2003/04 outbreaks as the baseline on
which the assumptions have been built. The most likely scenario closely follows the real market
developments depicted by the baseline. It is important to note that all assumptions are made in terms of the
overall net impact, as price falls and sales decline for the affected producers/countries have generally
resulted in gains in price and sales increases for producers/countries that have managed to stay free from
the disease (as discussed in section 4.3.).
139 This classification has been adjusted from reference A40, the Global Strategy for Progressive Control of HPAI
(November 2005) and A42, Avian Influenza Control and Eradication: FAO proposal (March 2006), with an update
of the current situation from OIE WAHID database (February 2007).
Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 141