2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting
2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting
2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting
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Instructions to users<br />
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide<br />
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5<br />
Objective:<br />
This spreadsheet has been developed to serve as a working tool for the estimation of the costs of HPAI outbreaks at a global, regional and individual country level under different scenarios and assumptions.<br />
The idea is that, as the epidemic occurence of HPAI is constantly changing, the scenarios and assumptions can ve varied to reflect more accurately the evolving reality.<br />
Similarly, the data on which the current spreadsheet is based can be adjusted as new data and evidence from other research comes to light.<br />
Scenarios and assumptions:<br />
The current scenarios are as follows:<br />
Scenario 1 (most likely scenario): assumes that, in the event of a disaese outbreak, the resulting impact will be between the low impact and high impact scenarios<br />
Scenario 2 (low impact)<br />
Scenario 3 (high impact)<br />
In addition, there are 3 scenarios on the geographical scale of the outbreak: Scenario A; Scenario B; Scenario C.<br />
These are based on the country classification of the "Global Strategy for Progressive Control of HPAI" (A40), and on the "AI Control and Eradication: FAO proposal for a global programme" (A42).<br />
Current country coverage has been adjusted to reflect the current status of the geographical presence of the disease (based on OIE/WAHID data).<br />
The variables on which the above scenarios depend are illustrated in the 'Assumptions outbreak costs' worksheet.<br />
Results:<br />
A differentiation is made between direct impacts and losses and indirect impacts.<br />
Results on the former are presented in the 'Direct outbreak costs' worksheet, for the latter in the 'Indirect outbreak costs' worksheet.<br />
The direct outbreak costs are given for OIE developing/transition countries only (scope of this project).<br />
The indirect impact is given for the world.<br />
The underlying assumption is that, this being a transboundary disease, the wider economic effects (in terms of trade loss, loss in other sectors such as travel/tourism and the wider costs of a pandemic) transcend<br />
throughout the world.<br />
Data sources/notes:<br />
All sources of data are indicated in the notes under each worksheet.<br />
The worksheets 'Vietnam HPAI' and 'Nigeria HPAI' contain more detailed data and calculations for the direct production costs and losses in these countries, based on our case studies.<br />
The worksheet 'global HPAI' contains more detailed data and calculations for the indirect costs and losses at a global level, based on our literature review.<br />
The worksheet 'pandemic effects' contains more detailed data and calculations for the pandemic effects.<br />
© Spreadsheet developed by <strong>Agra</strong> <strong>CEAS</strong> <strong>Consulting</strong> for the OIE.<br />
Civic <strong>Consulting</strong> - <strong>Agra</strong> <strong>CEAS</strong> <strong>Consulting</strong> 1