2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5 Public health effects of a pandemic influenza (1) Attack rate Number of people Cost (million US$, Share of each Cost (million US$, Cost as % of GDP (2) 1995) (4) category 2005) (4) (5) (2005) (5) (6) Hospitalisations 15% 314,000 1,928 2.7% 2,352 0.02% 35% 734,000 4,499 2.7% 5,489 0.04% Outpatient visits 15% 18,000,000 5,708 8.0% 6,964 0.06% 35% 42,000,000 13,318 8.0% 16,248 0.13% Clinically ill (3) 15% 20,000,000 4,422 6.2% 5,395 0.04% 35% 47,000,000 10,317 6.2% 12,587 0.10% Deaths 15% 89,000 59,288 83.1% 72,331 0.58% 35% 207,000 138,340 83.1% 168,775 1.35% Total economic impact (4) 15% 71,346 2.7% 87,042 0.70% 35% 166,474 1.2% 203,098 1.63% Notes: (1) Mean estimates of the possible effects of an influenza pandemic in the US. (source: A5) (2) The distribution of cases was based on lower and upper estimates of age-specific attack rates from the 1918, 1928-29, and 1957 epidemics and pandemics (3) Mean number of clinically ill not seeking medical care but still sustaining economic loss (4) Estimated costs, on the basis of medical costs and value of lost work days. Excludes other disruptions to commerce and society. (5) Cost (in 1995 million US$) adjusted to 2005 $ value. In 2005, $1.00 from 1995 is worth: $1.22 using the GDP deflator (6) 2005 GDP: 12,456 billion US $ (source: IMF) Assumptions made Category of PH impact Age group Mean (yrs) Total cases at high risk (%) Death 0-19 9.0 20-64 40.9 65 + 34.4 Total 84.3 Hospitalizations 0-19 4.6 20-64 14.7 65 + 18.3 Total 37.6 Outpatients 0-19 5.0 20-64 10.4 65 + 4.0 Total 19.5 Civic Consulting - Agra CEAS Consulting 23
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5 Assumptions made Costs per case Age group Costs ($) Death (Present Value of earnings lost) 0-19 1,016,101 20-64 1,037,673 65 + 65,837 Hospitalizations (total costs) 0-19 3,366 20-64 6,842 65 + 7,653 Costs days lost (indirect) 0-19 325 20-64 800 65 + 650 Medical costs (direct) 0-19 3,041 20-64 6,042 65 + 7,003 Outpatient visits (total costs) 0-19 300 20-64 330 65 + 458 Costs days lost (indirect) 0-19 195 20-64 200 65 + 325 Medical costs (direct) 0-19 105 20-64 130 65 + 133 Clinically ill (total costs) 0-19 197 20-64 202 65 + 327 Costs days lost (indirect) 0-19 195 20-64 200 65 + 325 Medical costs (direct) 0-19 2 20-64 2 65 + 2 Civic Consulting - Agra CEAS Consulting 24
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2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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