2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
Literature review: assessment of prevention costs:
The difficulties encountered in comparing plans reflect the varying nature of the problems
and concerns of each country, including in terms of disease occurrence, farming structures,
and existing veterinary systems and infrastructure. These factors affect each country’s
objectives, needs and priorities. These specificities highlight the risks of extrapolating from
ad hoc country cases to a regional and global level.
To overcome these constraints, the present analysis has been based on the global estimates
provided by the World Bank, and on the Africa estimates by ALIVE (the latter based on
individual countries’ own assessments), as follows:
WB: global estimates of costs of improved prevention and preparedness (integrated animal
health and human health) = US$ 1 billion for 2006-08 (average US$ 340 million per year);
ALIVE: Africa estimates of country needs (animal health only). Prevention and
preparedness = US$ 44.4 million for 3 years (average US$ 15 million per year).
Strengthening VS = US$ 32 million for 3 years (average US$ 10.6 million per year).
Our analysis highlights the importance of a systematic assessment of every country’s needs,
based on objective criteria. In this context, the recently started country reviews (using the
OIE PVS tool) provide a substantial first step to this direction.
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A recommendation here could be that the results of the PVS evaluations are followed
up by detailed economic assessments of the costs involved in carrying out the
recommended modifications to bring the assessed countries’ VS in line with the OIE
standards and their international obligations.
4.3. Disease outbreak costs and losses
4.3.1. Overall impact
Given the complexity of issues and the relatively early stages in the advancement of the economic analysis
of AH systems, the economic implications of animal diseases and animal disease control are largely
under-studied.
In the case of developed countries, the direct and indirect costs of crises have generally been more
extensively covered than is the case in developing countries 80 . Only more recently, HPAI induced losses
in the developing/emerging economies of SE Asia have been studied in depth.
80 A notable exception is rinderpest, the economic implications of which have been extensively studied in the context
of the Pan African Rinderpest Campaign (e.g. by VEERU, University of Reading).
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