2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5
Notes:
(a) includes culling (value of culled animals and culling/disposal) and control costs
(1) To date central government budget allocated for AI amounts to 268 billion VND, which comes from the budget of the National Prevention/Emergency Fund and corresponds to some 15% of this budget (source: A3)
(2) Assuming that the provided compensation from the Fund (at 5,000 VND per head) only represents 10-15% of the real market value. This is the real 'lost income per head' (source: A3)
(3) Compensation for culling only, at 5,000 VND per head
(4) On the basis of the provided compensation from the Fund for restocking (at 2,000 VND per head)
(5) Cost estimates per bird on the basis of destruction and disposal of 200 chickens per farm (source: A7)
(6) On the basis of the provided compensation from the Fund. Includes control costs during and after the outbreak (i.e. equipment, facilities, disinfectants, protective clothing, staff in quarantine stations etc.)
(7) The market value of a layer is considered to be 100,000 VND/head (source: A3)
(8) Monthly sales by price. Income during 'normal' and 'crisis' periods calculated as follows:
At the lowest point of the crisis (Oct/Nov 2005), prices were 50 to 60% below normal, and volume of poultry sales had fallen from about 40 million poultry per month to 20 million (unofficial data, source: A9)
Price pre-crisis = VND 15,000/poultry. This is based on VND 10,000 /kg (semi-commercial farmer, source: A9), for an average 1.5 kg/broiler (productivity in Vietnam is relatively low, source: FAO).
Crisis period assumed to be an average over 6 months (in the beginning crisis has a higher impact on sales/prices, with return to normal the impact progressively diminishes).
Exchange rate: 1USD = VND 15600
Vietnam: Country data
Broiler chicken (no of heads), 2005 195,000,000
Laying hens (no of heads), 2005 48,000,000
Total (2005) 243,000,000
Number of birds culled (2005) % of total 7%
Number of birds culled (2004) % of total 10%
Number of birds culled (2004-5) % of total 17%
Number of birds culled (2004-5 average) % 13%
source: FAOSTAT
Notes:
(a) It is estimated that 65-70% of the total poultry population is kept in backyard farms.
Large commercial systems represent 20-25% of the total poultry population and about 10-15% is kept in small commercial farms. (A16)
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