2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5 Nigeria: HPAI Africa: HPAI Nigerian Naria (N) USD USD USD Total costs (Oct. 2006) (a) 1,068,760,000 8,389,011 Total costs (1 yr est) 151,340,659 Total costs (est.) (a) (c) 2,313,696,000 18,160,879 Total costs (3 yrs est) 454,021,978 Total compensation (2006 est.) (c)(d) 655,855,200 5,148,000 Value of culled animals per head 700 5.49 Value of culled animals per head 5.49 Compensation rate per head (d) 248 1.95 Culling and disposal costs per head (e) 127 1.00 Culling and disposal costs per head (2) 1.00 Control costs per head (f) 49 0.38 Control costs per head (f) 0.38 Number of birds culled (Oct. 2006) (b) 900,000 900,000 Number of birds died (Oct. 2006) (b) 400,000 400,000 Number of birds culled (est) (c) 2,640,000 2,640,000 Number of birds culled (3 yrs est) (1) 22,000,000 66,000,000 Total value of culled/dead animals (Oct. 2006) 910,000,000 7,142,857 Total value of culled/dead animals (3 yrs est.) 120,879,121 362,637,363 Total culling and disposal costs (Oct. 2006) 114,660,000 900,000 Total culling and disposal costs (3 yrs est.) 22,000,000 66,000,000 Total control costs (Oct. 2006) 44,100,000 346,154 Total control costs (3 yrs est.) 8,461,538 25,384,615 Total value of culled/dead animals (est.) (c ) 1,848,000,000 14,505,495 Total culling and disposal costs (est.) (c ) 336,336,000 2,640,000 Total control costs (est.) (c ) 129,360,000 1,015,385 Market price (layer) (g) 700 5.49 Market price (broiler) (g) 1,000 7.85 Notes: (a) includes culling (value of culled animals and culling/disposal) and control costs (b) source: FDLPCS official data (A169) (c ) assuming disease continues on same course (as in the first 2 months) - the total number of poultry losses in the first 2 months after outbreak first occurred (Feb 2006) was 440,000 (A258) (d) on the basis of gvmt announcement, compensation for culling only (e) cost estimates per bird on the basis of destroying and disposing of 1000 birds per day by ad hoc organised teams (source: A7) (f) assumted to the double that of Vietnam as more costly to organise (for culling/disposal costs per bird ratio of Vietnam to Nigeria was 4:1) (g) range of current chicken market price (source: UNDP Nigeria, A293) (1) In Africa, it is estimated that 5 % (around 66,000,000 poultry) of the total poultry population (1.320 billion poultry - poultry population of South Africa not included) would be culled within 3 years (A258) (2) It is estimated to cost about US$ 1.00 per bird (A258, A7) Exchange rate: 1USD = Nigerian Naria (source: EIU) 127.4 Civic Consulting - Agra CEAS Consulting 21
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5 Nigeria: Country data Africa Broiler chicken (no of heads), 2005 (b) 140,000,000 Laying hens (no of heads), 2005 (b) 119,000,000 Number of birds culled (2006 est.) % (a) 2% Number of birds culled (3 yrs est.) % (c) 5% source: FAOSTAT Notes (a) FAOSTAT reports an overlap between the two categories hence the total number is not the addition of the two. Other sources (e.g. WB, A203) give a total number of 175 million poultry, of which 143 million are free ranging. Nigerian official sources give a 140 million poultry total stock and this is the figure used in this calculation (b) It is estimated that 60% of the total poultry population is scavenging or backyard poultry. The highly industrialised and integrated poultry production systems represent 25% of the total poultry population and about 15% is kept in semi-commercial sector III farms. (c) In Africa, it is estimated that 5 % (around 66,000,000 poultry) of the total poultry population (1.320 billion poultry - poultry population of South Africa not included) would be culled within 3 years (A258) Civic Consulting - Agra CEAS Consulting 22
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