2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
(b) Excluding contingencies at 20%
(c) Including contingencies at 20%; including needs at regional level
Source: WB, January 2006 and November 2006 (A89 and A147)
According to the methodology underlying these estimates (A89), a significant proportion of identified
needs in fact address rapid emergency containment in the event of an outbreak (including culling,
compensation, control and vaccination costs). Projected at the latest WB estimates presented in Bamako
(A147), this amounts to just under US$ 1 billion (Table 4). On the other hand, prevention and
preparedness costs as such (i.e. including preparation of preparedness plans, coordination, surveillance
and early warning, development of animal health strategies) accounts for 45% of the country needs, or just
over US$ 1 billion. On a 3 year basis, this amounts to an average US$ 340 million per year. It is noted
that this includes both the animal and the human health components of prevention and preparedness for
AI.
Table 4 Prevention and control of HPAI: estimates of global needs by type of intervention
In million US$
(a)
Share of total
(%)
1. Cross cutting issues (preparedness plans and
coordination) (b)
181.9 8%
2. Surveillance and early warning (animal and human) 636.7 28%
3. Rapid outbreak containment plan and operations
(animal and human) (c)
977.8 43%
4. Health system response to deal with AI 27.3 12%
5. Preparing a medium-term agenda for animal and human
health
204.7 9%
TOTAL (a) 2,273.9 100%
(a) Excluding contingencies at 20%. Source A89
(b) For which a standard package of technical assistance and studies of US$ 250,000 was taken as the baseline
for an average size country, adjusted for country size.
(c) This includes culling and compensation costs, and vaccination costs.
Source: World Bank (A89 and A147)
The Africa estimates included in this framework were established in the context of the ALIVE project. A
preliminary assessment of the financing needs and gaps for avian and human influenza control and
prevention in Africa was made in June 2006 (Vienna meeting). This was revised in December 2006 for the
Bamako conference (A 258). The global budget needs were estimated at US$ 722 million for immediate
and short term needs for 3 years; and another US$ 1.1 billion for year 4-10 (Table 5). The animal health
component as such accounted for over half of the estimated needs in each case.
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