2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
Country
Thailand
UK
Africa
Impact
Scenarios: Improved vaccination coverage for FMD (to reduce productivity losses), compared
to eventual eradication of FMD.
Results: the economic return to the high expenditure incurred in FMD control could be achieved
in the short term if greater international trade in pork products was made possible and higher
export prices than those in the domestic market could be attained. If FMD were to be
eradicated from Thailand by 2010, the eradication would be economically viable, even
without exports, with a benefit-cost ratio of 3.7. If eradication is achieved by 2015 without
additional exports, the benefit-cost ratio becomes 2 and by 2020 it would be 1.2. If
additional exports are achieved, the justification for eradication becomes stronger with a
benefit-cost ratio of up to 15:1. (A124)
Scenarios: Four broad control strategies for FMD are examined. a) Culling of infected premises
and epidemiologically linked holdings; b) Strategy (a) plus contiguous cull; c) Strategy (a) plus
vaccination of cattle only; d) Strategy (a) plus vaccination of cattle and sheep.
Results: The findings suggest that there are a large number of parameters that influence the size
and total cost of an outbreak and hence there is no generally applicable lowest cost control
strategy. The predicted mean total outbreak cost (net of inter-sectoral transfers, e.g. from the
affected regions' tourism industry to other regions) varies between approximately £20 million
and £440 million. This compares with the estimated cost of the 2001 outbreak of approximately
£3,800 million on a comparable basis (£3,100 million for the livestock industry, food chain and
central Government costs; and £700 million for the estimated lost tourism sector “value added”
not transferred elsewhere in the economy). (A249)
Cost and benefit analysis of the CBPP control program in twelve sub-Saharan African countries
(Burkina Faso, Chad, Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Mali, Mauritania, Niger,
Tanzania and Uganda):
Scenarios: Compares the economic cost of CBPP without control’ program for CBPP and the
benefits of its control. The value of the losses of CBPP due to morbidity and mortality in all the
twelve sub-Saharan African countries concerned was estimated at 30.1 million Euros (an
average of 2.5 million Euros per country), which represents the 66.7% of the total economic cost
of CBPP estimated at 44.8 million Euros (an average cost of 3.7 million Euros per country). The
cost of the disease control (estimated at 14,7 million Euros) includes the cost of vaccination
(78%) and the cost of treatment (22%).
Results: these estimates suggest that by investing 14.7 million Euros to control CBPP in the
countries concerned, a loss of 30 million Euros will be avoided. This will lead to a net
benefit of 15.4 million Euros; equivalent to a net benefit of 1.3 million Euros per country
Benefit-cost analysis revealed that CBPP control using vaccination and antibiotic treatment is
economically beneficial as an overall benefit-cot ratio of 1.94 (ranged from 1.61 in Chad to 2.56
in Kenya). (A186)
Mali
Preliminary simulations from a cost-benefit analysis of the strengthening of VS and in particular
of epidemiological surveillance in Mali demonstrated that a reduction by 1% of the mortality
rate of bovines and by 2% of the mortality rate of small ruminants would allow an increase in
annual production of 14,000 tonnes of meat, which represents a retail value of about US$ 28.9
million a year. (Analysis quoted in A110)
Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 92